Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 16/10, 17:30

Prediction: FK BE1 vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Team pages: FK BE1 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

FK BE11.55

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.05

1X2

49% 26% 25%

FK BE1 Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK BE1 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWWWD

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLWLL

Head-to-head

FK BE1 0–2–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda (6 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-0FK BE1
FK BE10-4FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda3-0FK BE1
FK Neptunas Klaipeda4-1FK BE1
FK BE11-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-1FK BE1

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK BE1 1529 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1500

	FK BE1	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK BE1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +3’	1.80	3.75	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK BE1 0–2–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-0 HT 0-0	FK BE1
15/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	0-4 HT 0-2	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
18/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	3-0 HT 2-0	FK BE1
18/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	4-1 HT 2-1	FK BE1
31/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
21/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-1 HT 1-0	FK BE1

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68	13	67
2	FK Babrungas	26	20	4	2	45	11	64
3	FK BE1	25	16	3	6	45	27	51
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	26	14	4	8	40	33	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	26	14	2	10	33	31	44
6	BFA Vilnius	26	13	4	9	40	37	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	26	11	8	7	37	27	41
9	FK Atmosfera	25	8	7	10	37	33	31
10	FK Garliava	26	8	5	13	31	28	29
11	Lietava Jonava	26	7	6	13	28	35	27
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	26	7	2	17	26	46	23
13	FK Transinvest II	26	6	4	16	30	59	22
14	FC Hegelmann II	26	7	1	18	28	58	22
15	FK Siauliai II	26	4	6	16	30	59	18
16	FK Ekranas	26	4	3	19	26	59	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK BE1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Siauliai II	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Garliava	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Hegelmann II	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK Minija	0-3 L	1-2 L
Lietava Jonava	0-2 L	2-0 W
BFA Vilnius	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK BE1 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK BE1

LLLWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
18/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
14/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
04/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	3	2	W
21/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
14/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
08/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	0	3	L
31/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

WWWLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
19/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
11/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
29/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK BE1 vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK BE1 win (49%). Probabilities: FK BE1 49%, draw 26%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda 25%.

How many goals are expected in FK BE1 vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model expects 2.6 goals (FK BE1 1.55 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK BE1 vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.