Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 16/10, 18:00

Prediction: FK Ekranas vs DFK Dainava

Team pages: FK Ekranas · DFK Dainava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FK Ekranas1.11

DFK Dainava1.79

1X2

23% 23% 53%

FK Ekranas Draw DFK Dainava

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ekranas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLWLLD

DFK Dainava 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

FK Ekranas 1–2 DFK Dainava (3 last)

DFK Dainava2-0FK Ekranas
DFK Dainava2-1FK Ekranas
FK Ekranas2-0DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ekranas 1423 · DFK Dainava 1490

	FK Ekranas	Draw	DFK Dainava
Our model	22%	25%	52%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1423 vs 1490).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ekranas	DFK Dainava
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.6	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.9	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X4.10

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	1.73 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +28’	3.50	4.00	1.73
15:10 +6’	3.70▲	4.10▲	1.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ekranas 1–0–2 DFK Dainava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Ekranas
12/08/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Ekranas
01/04/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	2-0 HT 1-0	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68	13	67
2	FK Babrungas	26	20	4	2	45	11	64
3	FK BE1	25	16	3	6	45	27	51
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	26	14	4	8	40	33	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	26	14	2	10	33	31	44
6	BFA Vilnius	26	13	4	9	40	37	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	26	11	8	7	37	27	41
9	FK Atmosfera	25	8	7	10	37	33	31
10	FK Garliava	26	8	5	13	31	28	29
11	Lietava Jonava	26	7	6	13	28	35	27
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	26	7	2	17	26	46	23
13	FK Transinvest II	26	6	4	16	30	59	22
14	FC Hegelmann II	26	7	1	18	28	58	22
15	FK Siauliai II	26	4	6	16	30	59	18
16	FK Ekranas	26	4	3	19	26	59	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ekranas	DFK Dainava
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK BE1	0-5 L	2-2 D
FC Hegelmann II	2-3 L	1-0 W
FK Minija	0-5 L	0-3 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	0-0 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-1 D	0-1 L
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Ekranas

LDWLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
19/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-6	6	9	L
12/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
05/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	12	9	W
29/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	3	2	L
21/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	8	2	L
14/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
07/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
01/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
25/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	1	L

DFK Dainava

DWDDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
02/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
18/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ekranas vs DFK Dainava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an DFK Dainava win (53%). Probabilities: FK Ekranas 23%, draw 23%, DFK Dainava 53%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ekranas vs DFK Dainava?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FK Ekranas 1.11 · DFK Dainava 1.79), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ekranas vs DFK Dainava?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.