Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 23/10, 18:30

Prediction: FK Garliava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Team pages: FK Garliava · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FK Garliava1.46

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.47

1X2

37% 26% 37%

FK Garliava Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Garliava 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWDW

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWLWL

Head-to-head

FK Garliava 1–1–3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (5 last)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II2-1FK Garliava
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-1FK Garliava
FK Garliava1-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-0FK Garliava
FK Garliava1-3FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Garliava 1439 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1561

	FK Garliava	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (rating 1439 vs 1561).
H2H favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Garliava	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	2.15 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.51 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +39’	2.60	3.70	2.15
04:02 +3’	2.40▼	3.60▼	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:43 +20’	2.39	3.25	2.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Garliava 1–1–3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Garliava
28/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
10/06/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
22/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
17/06/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	27	21	4	2	48	13	67
2	FK Minija	26	22	1	3	70	16	67
3	FK BE1	26	17	3	6	47	27	54
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	27	14	4	9	42	36	46
5	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	27	14	2	11	33	33	44
6	DFK Dainava	27	12	8	7	40	28	44
7	FK Tauras	26	13	5	8	47	35	44
8	BFA Vilnius	27	13	4	10	40	40	43
9	FK Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	40	35	34
10	FK Garliava	27	9	5	13	34	30	32
11	Lietava Jonava	27	8	6	13	31	35	30
12	FK Transinvest II	27	7	4	16	32	59	25
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26	48	23
14	FC Hegelmann II	27	7	2	18	32	62	23
15	FK Siauliai II	27	4	6	17	32	62	18
16	FK Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27	62	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Garliava	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Siauliai II	3-2 W	4-1 W
FK Atmosfera	0-0 D	2-3 L
DFK Dainava	2-1 W	1-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-3 L	2-1 W
BFA Vilnius	2-3 L	2-1 W
FK Ekranas	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	0-1 L	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Garliava

LLLLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
10/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
02/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
19/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
12/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	4	3	L
05/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
29/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

DWWWWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-3	7	2	L
09/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	7	8	W
20/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
12/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
28/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Garliava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Garliava win (37%). Probabilities: FK Garliava 37%, draw 26%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 37%.

How many goals are expected in FK Garliava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FK Garliava 1.46 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.47), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Garliava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.