Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 01/11, 18:00

Prediction: FC Hegelmann II vs BFA Vilnius

Team pages: FC Hegelmann II · BFA Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

FC Hegelmann II1.64

BFA Vilnius1.7

1X2

37% 24% 39%

FC Hegelmann II Draw BFA Vilnius

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hegelmann II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLWDL

BFA Vilnius 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWDLLW

Head-to-head

FC Hegelmann II 2–3 BFA Vilnius (5 last)

BFA Vilnius0-1FC Hegelmann II
BFA Vilnius1-0FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II1-2BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius3-2FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II2-0BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hegelmann II 1467 · BFA Vilnius 1521

	FC Hegelmann II	Draw	BFA Vilnius
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	37%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1467 vs 1521).
H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 3-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hegelmann II	BFA Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.3	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.75

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.50 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
05:00 +12’	2.25	3.75	2.50
19:21 +26’	2.45▲	3.75	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hegelmann II 2–0–3 BFA Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Hegelmann II
09/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
04/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-2 HT 0-2	BFA Vilnius
28/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	3-2 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
13/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	2-0 HT 1-0	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	28	23	1	4	74	19	70
3	FK BE1	28	18	4	6	50	29	58
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	FK Tauras	28	14	5	9	50	38	47
6	BFA Vilnius	28	14	4	10	42	41	46
7	DFK Dainava	28	12	8	8	40	29	44
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	28	10	7	11	44	38	37
10	FK Garliava	28	9	5	14	34	32	32
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	28	8	4	16	35	61	28
14	FC Hegelmann II	28	7	2	19	32	66	23
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	28	4	5	19	31	65	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hegelmann II	BFA Vilnius
FK Babrungas	0-4 L	2-1 W
FK Tauras	4-4 D	2-2 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-0 W	2-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	0-0 D
FK Transinvest II	1-4 L	4-2 W
FK Garliava	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hegelmann II

LLWLWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-4	0-4	7	2	L
16/10	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	4-4	9	3	D
10/10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
18/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
11/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
29/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
07/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L

BFA Vilnius

WDWDWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
16/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-3	5	5	L
09/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
19/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
12/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	4	3	W
04/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
28/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hegelmann II vs BFA Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BFA Vilnius win (39%). Probabilities: FC Hegelmann II 37%, draw 24%, BFA Vilnius 39%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hegelmann II vs BFA Vilnius?

The model expects 3.34 goals (FC Hegelmann II 1.64 · BFA Vilnius 1.7), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hegelmann II vs BFA Vilnius?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.