Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 01/11, 16:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai II vs DFK Dainava

Team pages: FK Siauliai II · DFK Dainava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

FK Siauliai II1.39

DFK Dainava2.03

1X2

25% 23% 52%

FK Siauliai II Draw DFK Dainava

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLWDLL

DFK Dainava 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDLWLDWL

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai II 0–3 DFK Dainava (3 last)

DFK Dainava5-0FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II0-1DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava3-0FK Siauliai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai II 1440 · DFK Dainava 1480

	FK Siauliai II	Draw	DFK Dainava
Our model	25%	23%	52%
Market	26%	22%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1440 vs 1480).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai II	DFK Dainava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.5	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.00

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:25 +14’	3.50	4.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai II 0–0–3 DFK Dainava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	5-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II
12/11/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-1 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
06/07/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	28	23	1	4	74	19	70
3	FK BE1	28	18	4	6	50	29	58
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	FK Tauras	28	14	5	9	50	38	47
6	BFA Vilnius	28	14	4	10	42	41	46
7	DFK Dainava	28	12	8	8	40	29	44
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	28	10	7	11	44	38	37
10	FK Garliava	28	9	5	14	34	32	32
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	28	8	4	16	35	61	28
14	FC Hegelmann II	28	7	2	19	32	66	23
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	28	4	5	19	31	65	17

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai II	DFK Dainava
FK Garliava	2-3 L	1-2 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	3-3 D	0-1 L
FK Ekranas	6-2 W	3-1 W
FK BE1	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Hegelmann II	1-5 L	1-0 W
FK Minija	1-2 L	0-3 L
Lietava Jonava	1-0 W	0-0 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-4 L	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Siauliai II (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai II

DLWLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-3	5	3	L
17/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	10	6	L
09/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-3	1	3	D
19/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	6-2	7	9	W
14/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
04/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-5	3	2	L
28/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
21/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	12	3	L
08/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D

DFK Dainava

DDLDLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
16/10	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
09/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
02/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
18/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
04/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
28/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai II vs DFK Dainava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an DFK Dainava win (52%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai II 25%, draw 23%, DFK Dainava 52%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai II vs DFK Dainava?

The model expects 3.42 goals (FK Siauliai II 1.39 · DFK Dainava 2.03), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai II vs DFK Dainava?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.