Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 31/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: FK Minija · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

FK Minija2.19

FK Atmosfera1.04

1X2

63% 21% 16%

FK Minija Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWLL

FK Atmosfera 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDDWW

Head-to-head

FK Minija 4–2 FK Atmosfera (6 last)

FK Atmosfera0-1FK Minija
FK Minija0-1FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera0-1FK Minija
FK Atmosfera2-1FK Minija
FK Minija3-1FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera0-2FK Minija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1578 · FK Atmosfera 1502

	FK Minija	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1578 vs 1502).
H2H favours FK Minija: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 7.4	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.33

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33
2	6.50 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:06 +17’	1.33	4.75	6.50
15:01 +10’	1.42▲	4.33▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 4–0–2 FK Atmosfera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Minija
16/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Atmosfera
19/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Minija
02/11/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Minija
15/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
04/11/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Minija

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	28	22	4	2	52	13	70
2	FK Minija	27	22	1	4	71	18	67
3	FK BE1	27	18	3	6	49	28	57
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	28	15	4	9	44	36	49
5	BFA Vilnius	28	14	4	10	42	41	46
6	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	28	14	2	12	33	35	44
7	DFK Dainava	28	12	8	8	40	29	44
8	FK Tauras	27	13	5	9	48	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	43	35	37
10	FK Garliava	28	9	5	14	34	32	32
11	Lietava Jonava	28	8	6	14	31	38	30
12	FK Transinvest II	28	8	4	16	35	61	28
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	28	9	1	18	27	45	28
14	FC Hegelmann II	28	7	2	19	32	66	23
15	FK Ekranas	28	5	3	20	29	62	18
16	FK Siauliai II	28	4	5	19	31	65	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK Atmosfera
BFA Vilnius	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Babrungas	2-3 L	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-1 W	1-3 L
DFK Dainava	3-0 W	1-1 D
FK Transinvest II	3-0 W	0-2 L
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Minija

WWWWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
17/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-3	4	7	L
02/10	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W

FK Atmosfera

DLDLWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
17/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
10/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
19/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
11/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	2-3	2	3	L
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (63%). Probabilities: FK Minija 63%, draw 21%, FK Atmosfera 16%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 3.23 goals (FK Minija 2.19 · FK Atmosfera 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.