Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 31/10, 12:00

Prediction: Lietava Jonava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Team pages: Lietava Jonava · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Lietava Jonava1.39

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.25

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Lietava Jonava Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lietava Jonava 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLLWL

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Lietava Jonava 2–2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (6 last)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-2Lietava Jonava
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0-0Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava1-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Lietava Jonava0-3FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II0-2Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava0-4FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lietava Jonava 1455 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1554

	Lietava Jonava	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (rating 1455 vs 1554).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lietava Jonava	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	3.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +18’	2.20	3.60	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietava Jonava 2–2–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-2 HT 1-2	Lietava Jonava
31/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-0 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava
21/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
02/11/24 Lithuania II Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
06/07/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-2 HT 0-1	Lietava Jonava
31/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-4 HT 0-3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	28	22	4	2	52	13	70
2	FK Minija	27	22	1	4	71	18	67
3	FK BE1	27	18	3	6	49	28	57
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	28	15	4	9	44	36	49
5	BFA Vilnius	28	14	4	10	42	41	46
6	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	28	14	2	12	33	35	44
7	DFK Dainava	28	12	8	8	40	29	44
8	FK Tauras	27	13	5	9	48	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	43	35	37
10	FK Garliava	28	9	5	14	34	32	32
11	Lietava Jonava	28	8	6	14	31	38	30
12	FK Transinvest II	28	8	4	16	35	61	28
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	28	9	1	18	27	45	28
14	FC Hegelmann II	28	7	2	19	32	66	23
15	FK Ekranas	28	5	3	20	29	62	18
16	FK Siauliai II	28	4	5	19	31	65	17

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lietava Jonava	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Atmosfera	0-3 L	2-3 L
BFA Vilnius	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	2-3 L	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	1-0 W
FK Transinvest II	2-1 W	4-3 W
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	4-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	7 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lietava Jonava

LLLWDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
16/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-0	3	5	W
10/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
18/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
11/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
04/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

WWWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-3	7	2	L
09/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	7	8	W
20/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
12/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
28/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lietava Jonava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lietava Jonava win (40%). Probabilities: Lietava Jonava 40%, draw 27%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 33%.

How many goals are expected in Lietava Jonava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Lietava Jonava 1.39 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.25), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lietava Jonava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.