Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 30/10, 18:00

Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris II · FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FK Kauno Zalgiris II1.32

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.46

1X2

34% 26% 40%

FK Kauno Zalgiris II Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLDLW

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1–1–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda (6 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Neptunas Klaipeda3-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-3FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-2FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II5-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1499 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1450

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris II (rating 1499 vs 1450).
H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.3	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:00 +4’	2.60	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1–1–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-1 HT 2-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
24/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	3-1 HT 1-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
17/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
18/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-2 HT 2-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
22/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
04/11/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	5-1 HT 2-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	28	22	4	2	52	13	70
2	FK Minija	27	22	1	4	71	18	67
3	FK BE1	27	18	3	6	49	28	57
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	28	15	4	9	44	36	49
5	BFA Vilnius	28	14	4	10	42	41	46
6	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	28	14	2	12	33	35	44
7	DFK Dainava	28	12	8	8	40	29	44
8	FK Tauras	27	13	5	9	48	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	43	35	37
10	FK Garliava	28	9	5	14	34	32	32
11	Lietava Jonava	28	8	6	14	31	38	30
12	FK Transinvest II	28	8	4	16	35	61	28
13	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	28	8	2	18	27	48	26
14	FC Hegelmann II	28	7	2	19	32	66	23
15	FK Siauliai II	28	4	6	18	34	65	18
16	FK Ekranas	28	5	3	20	29	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Minija	0-5 L	1-2 L
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK BE1	0-1 L	0-2 L
FC Hegelmann II	3-0 W	0-1 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

LWWLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/10	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
09/10	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-3	8	3	D
02/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
19/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
12/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
04/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-0	12	3	W
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

WLLWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	16	5	L
16/10	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
10/10	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
19/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
11/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
29/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Neptunas Klaipeda win (40%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris II 34%, draw 26%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda 40%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.32 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.