Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Lietava Jonava vs FC Hegelmann II

Team pages: Lietava Jonava · FC Hegelmann II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Lietava Jonava1.74

FC Hegelmann II1.41

1X2

45% 25% 31%

Lietava Jonava Draw FC Hegelmann II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lietava Jonava 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLWLD

FC Hegelmann II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWDLD

Head-to-head

Lietava Jonava 1–1–1 FC Hegelmann II (3 last)

FC Hegelmann II2-1Lietava Jonava
FC Hegelmann II1-2Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava1-1FC Hegelmann II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lietava Jonava 1451 · FC Hegelmann II 1480

	Lietava Jonava	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	44%	25%	30%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lietava Jonava	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	4.1 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +16’	2.00	3.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lietava Jonava 1–1–1 FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	2-1 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava
23/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-2 HT 1-1	Lietava Jonava
26/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	29	22	5	2	53	14	71
2	FK Minija	29	23	2	4	77	22	71
3	FK BE1	29	18	5	6	51	30	59
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	29	15	5	9	46	38	50
5	FK Tauras	29	14	6	9	53	41	48
6	DFK Dainava	29	13	8	8	44	29	47
7	BFA Vilnius	29	14	5	10	43	42	47
8	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	29	14	2	13	33	37	44
9	FK Atmosfera	29	10	8	11	45	39	38
10	FK Garliava	29	9	6	14	37	35	33
11	Lietava Jonava	29	8	7	14	33	40	31
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	29	10	1	18	29	45	31
13	FK Transinvest II	29	8	5	16	38	64	29
14	FC Hegelmann II	29	7	3	19	33	67	24
15	FK Ekranas	29	5	3	21	30	64	18
16	FK Siauliai II	29	4	5	20	31	69	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lietava Jonava	FC Hegelmann II
BFA Vilnius	3-0 W	1-1 D
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	0-4 L
FK Tauras	2-3 L	4-4 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-2 L	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	0-1 L
FK Transinvest II	2-1 W	1-4 L
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	5-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lietava Jonava (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lietava Jonava

LLWDLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
24/10	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
16/10	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-0	3	5	W
10/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
18/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
11/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
04/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L

FC Hegelmann II

LWLWLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
25/10	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-4	0-4	7	2	L
16/10	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	4-4	9	3	D
10/10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
18/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
11/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
29/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lietava Jonava vs FC Hegelmann II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lietava Jonava win (45%). Probabilities: Lietava Jonava 45%, draw 25%, FC Hegelmann II 31%.

How many goals are expected in Lietava Jonava vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Lietava Jonava 1.74 · FC Hegelmann II 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lietava Jonava vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.