Football · England Premier League · 23/08, 17:30
Prediction: Newcastle vs Liverpool
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Newcastle1.33
Liverpool1.97
1X2
Newcastle
Draw
Liverpool
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Newcastle
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Liverpool
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newcastle
1–1–4
Liverpool
(6 last)
- Liverpool4-1Newcastle
- Newcastle2-3Liverpool
- Liverpool1-2Newcastle
- Liverpool2-0Newcastle
- Newcastle3-3Liverpool
- Liverpool4-2Newcastle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newcastle 1455 · Liverpool 1522
| Newcastle | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liverpool (rating 1455 vs 1522).
- H2H favours Liverpool: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newcastle | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.8 | 3.2 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle 1–1–4 Liverpool
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England Premier League | Liverpool | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Newcastle |
| 25/08/25 England Premier League | Newcastle | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Liverpool |
| 16/03/25 England EFL Cup | Liverpool | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Newcastle |
| 26/02/25 England Premier League | Liverpool | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Newcastle |
| 04/12/24 England Premier League | Newcastle | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Liverpool |
| 01/01/24 England Premier League | Liverpool | 4-2 HT 0-0 | Newcastle |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Leeds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Man Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nottm Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Tottenham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newcastle | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Brighton | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Crystal Palace | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Chelsea | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Man Utd | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Newcastle (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newcastle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Sunderland England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 14/03 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/03 | Man Utd England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
Liverpool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Fulham England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 21/03 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 15/03 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 03/03 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Liverpool win (51%). Probabilities: Newcastle 24%, draw 25%, Liverpool 51%.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Newcastle 1.33 · Liverpool 1.97), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.