Football · England Premier League · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Nottm Forest vs Leeds
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Nottm Forest1.47
Leeds1.18
1X2
Nottm Forest
Draw
Leeds
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nottm Forest
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Leeds
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nottm Forest
3–3
Leeds
(6 last)
- Leeds3-1Nottm Forest
- Nottm Forest3-1Leeds
- Nottm Forest0-2Leeds
- Leeds2-1Nottm Forest
- Nottm Forest1-0Leeds
- Nottm Forest2-0Leeds
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nottm Forest 1526 · Leeds 1550
| Nottm Forest | Draw | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nottm Forest | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/33/11% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.7 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nottm Forest 3–0–3 Leeds
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/26 England Premier League | Leeds | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Nottm Forest |
| 09/11/25 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Leeds |
| 27/07/23 Elite Club Friendlies | Nottm Forest | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
| 04/04/23 England Premier League | Leeds | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Nottm Forest |
| 05/02/23 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Leeds |
| 08/02/20 England Championship | Nottm Forest | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Leeds |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Coventry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leeds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Man Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nottm Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tottenham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nottm Forest
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Brest Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 12/08 | Bayer Leverkusen Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 08/08 | Barcelona Club Friendly List |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Udinese Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 31/07 | Sporting Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 31/07 | Portimonense Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/07 | Blackburn Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Notts County Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Leeds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Augsburg Elite Club Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/08 | Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | RB Leipzig Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 02/08 | Liverpool Elite Club Friendlies |
0-2 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 31/07 | Sunderland Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Wrexham Elite Club Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 11/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nottm Forest vs Leeds?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nottm Forest win (43%). Probabilities: Nottm Forest 43%, draw 28%, Leeds 29%.
How many goals are expected in Nottm Forest vs Leeds?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Nottm Forest 1.47 · Leeds 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nottm Forest vs Leeds?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.