Football · England Premier League · 23/08, 15:00
Prediction: Brighton vs Aston Villa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Brighton1.66
Aston Villa1.37
1X2
Brighton
Draw
Aston Villa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Brighton
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Aston Villa
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brighton
1–1–4
Aston Villa
(6 last)
- Aston Villa1-0Brighton
- Brighton3-4Aston Villa
- Brighton0-3Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-2Brighton
- Brighton1-0Aston Villa
- Aston Villa6-1Brighton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brighton 1529 · Aston Villa 1533
| Brighton | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aston Villa: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brighton | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brighton 1–1–4 Aston Villa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Brighton |
| 03/12/25 England Premier League | Brighton | 3-4 HT 2-2 | Aston Villa |
| 02/04/25 England Premier League | Brighton | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa |
| 30/12/24 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Brighton |
| 05/05/24 England Premier League | Brighton | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa |
| 30/09/23 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 6-1 HT 3-0 | Brighton |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Leeds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Man Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nottm Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Tottenham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brighton | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Man Utd | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Chelsea | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Tottenham | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Burnley | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Liverpool | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Sunderland | 1-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Brighton (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brighton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 21/04 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 14/03 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/03 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Aston Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Sunderland England Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | West Ham England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 04/03 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brighton vs Aston Villa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brighton win (43%). Probabilities: Brighton 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%.
How many goals are expected in Brighton vs Aston Villa?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Brighton 1.66 · Aston Villa 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Aston Villa?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.