Football · England Premier League · 24/08, 21:00
Prediction: Fulham vs Chelsea
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Fulham0.96
Chelsea1.5
1X2
Fulham
Draw
Chelsea
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fulham
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Chelsea
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fulham
2–4
Chelsea
(6 last)
- Fulham2-1Chelsea
- Chelsea2-0Fulham
- Fulham1-2Chelsea
- Chelsea1-2Fulham
- Chelsea1-0Fulham
- Fulham0-2Chelsea
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fulham 1494 · Chelsea 1466
| Fulham | Draw | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chelsea: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fulham | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.7 | 2.9 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fulham 2–0–4 Chelsea
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/26 England Premier League | Fulham | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Chelsea |
| 30/08/25 England Premier League | Chelsea | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fulham |
| 20/04/25 England Premier League | Fulham | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Chelsea |
| 26/12/24 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Fulham |
| 13/01/24 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Fulham |
| 02/10/23 England Premier League | Fulham | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Chelsea |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Hull | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Aston Villa | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Liverpool | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Nottm Forest | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fulham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 11/04 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 21/03 | Burnley England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/03 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 04/03 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Chelsea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 19/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Everton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 14/03 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 04/03 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fulham vs Chelsea?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelsea win (50%). Probabilities: Fulham 24%, draw 26%, Chelsea 50%.
How many goals are expected in Fulham vs Chelsea?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Fulham 0.96 · Chelsea 1.5), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Chelsea?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.