Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 07/10, 14:00

Prediction: Shurtan vs Jayxun

Team pages: Shurtan · Jayxun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Shurtan1.93

Jayxun0.87

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Shurtan Draw Jayxun

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Shurtan 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLWWW

Jayxun 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Shurtan 1–0 Jayxun (1 last)

Jayxun1-2Shurtan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shurtan 1555 · Jayxun 1497

	Shurtan	Draw	Jayxun
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	62%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shurtan (rating 1555 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shurtan	Jayxun
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/17/17%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.6	2.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 5.33
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 9.32 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +24’	1.44	4.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +97’	1.21	5.33	9.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shurtan 1–0–0 Jayxun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Jayxun	1-2	Shurtan

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	20	15	4	1	42	13	49
2	Shurtan	20	13	3	4	35	19	42
3	Metallurg Bekabad	20	12	4	4	46	16	40
4	Fardu Ferghana	20	11	6	3	37	27	39
5	Kattaqorgon	19	10	3	6	24	17	33
6	FC Lochin	20	9	5	6	26	23	32
7	Gazalkent	20	9	5	6	36	23	32
8	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
9	Jayxun	20	7	3	10	22	25	24
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	20	6	4	10	23	37	22
11	Respublika FA	19	6	4	9	25	29	22
12	BuxDu	20	3	1	16	16	48	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	20	3	1	16	13	46	10
14	PFC Terdu	20	1	1	18	12	48	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shurtan	Jayxun
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	4-0 W	2-0 W
PFC Terdu	3-0 W	1-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	4-1 W	3-1 W
FC Lochin	0-1 L	0-1 L
Fardu Ferghana	1-3 L	0-0 D
Kattaqorgon	1-0 W	1-2 L
Olympic Mobiuz	0-0 D	1-2 L
BuxDu	4-2 W	5-1 W
Respublika FA	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Shurtan (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shurtan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	4-0	4	1	W
12/09	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
06/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	4-1	6	8	W
29/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	3	2	L
15/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	8	1	W
10/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	15	2	D
05/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-2	5	3	W
30/07	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
24/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-3	2	8	L

Jayxun

WWLLDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/09	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
20/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	3	5	L
14/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	3	5	L
05/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/07	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-1	2	7	W
25/07	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shurtan vs Jayxun?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shurtan win (62%). Probabilities: Shurtan 62%, draw 22%, Jayxun 16%.

How many goals are expected in Shurtan vs Jayxun?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Shurtan 1.93 · Jayxun 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Shurtan vs Jayxun?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.