Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 08/10, 15:00

Prediction: Gazalkent vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Team pages: Gazalkent · Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Gazalkent2.48

Pakhtakor Tashkent II0.9

1X2

72% 17% 11%

Gazalkent Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gazalkent 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLDDW

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Gazalkent 1–0 Pakhtakor Tashkent II (1 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent II1-2Gazalkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gazalkent 1554 · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1405

	Gazalkent	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent II
Our model	71%	18%	11%
Market	72%	17%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gazalkent (rating 1554 vs 1405).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gazalkent	Pakhtakor Tashkent II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 5.3	1.8 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.8	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.25

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +5’	1.25	5.25	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gazalkent 1–0–0 Pakhtakor Tashkent II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	1-2 HT 0-1	Gazalkent

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	20	15	4	1	42	13	49
2	Shurtan	20	13	3	4	35	19	42
3	Metallurg Bekabad	20	12	4	4	46	16	40
4	Fardu Ferghana	19	10	6	3	34	26	36
5	Kattaqorgon	19	10	3	6	24	17	33
6	FC Lochin	20	9	5	6	26	23	32
7	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
8	Gazalkent	19	8	5	6	32	22	29
9	Jayxun	20	7	3	10	22	25	24
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	20	6	4	10	23	37	22
11	Respublika FA	19	6	4	9	25	29	22
12	BuxDu	19	3	1	15	15	45	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	20	3	1	16	13	46	10
14	PFC Terdu	19	1	1	17	11	44	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gazalkent	Pakhtakor Tashkent II
PFC Terdu	4-1 W	3-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	0-0 D	0-2 L
FC Lochin	1-1 D	2-1 W
Fardu Ferghana	0-1 L	1-5 L
Kattaqorgon	4-2 W	0-2 L
Olympic Mobiuz	0-1 L	1-4 L
BuxDu	3-1 W	0-2 L
Metallurg Bekabad	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Gazalkent (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gazalkent

WLWWLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
11/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
06/09	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
21/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	4-2	2	3	W
14/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	3	6	L
09/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	2	4	W
04/08	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	7-0	6	6	W
31/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
23/07	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	3-2	8	6	W

Pakhtakor Tashkent II

LLLLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-4	0	1	L
12/09	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
07/09	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	4	1	L
28/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
20/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	0	0	L
15/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-5	4	4	L
04/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
30/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gazalkent vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gazalkent win (72%). Probabilities: Gazalkent 72%, draw 17%, Pakhtakor Tashkent II 11%.

How many goals are expected in Gazalkent vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Gazalkent 2.48 · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0.9), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gazalkent vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.