Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 08/10, 12:30

Prediction: Respublika FA vs FC Yaypan Fergana

Team pages: Respublika FA · FC Yaypan Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Respublika FA1.79

FC Yaypan Fergana1.17

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Respublika FA Draw FC Yaypan Fergana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Respublika FA 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Yaypan Fergana 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Respublika FA 0–1 FC Yaypan Fergana (1 last)

FC Yaypan Fergana1-0Respublika FA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Respublika FA 1495 · FC Yaypan Fergana 1466

	Respublika FA	Draw	FC Yaypan Fergana
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	51%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Respublika FA	FC Yaypan Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	0/57/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	1.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.70

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:50 +11’	1.75	3.70	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Respublika FA 0–0–1 FC Yaypan Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	FC Yaypan Fergana	1-0 HT 0-0	Respublika FA

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	20	15	4	1	42	13	49
2	Shurtan	20	13	3	4	35	19	42
3	Metallurg Bekabad	20	12	4	4	46	16	40
4	Fardu Ferghana	19	10	6	3	34	26	36
5	Kattaqorgon	19	10	3	6	24	17	33
6	FC Lochin	20	9	5	6	26	23	32
7	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
8	Gazalkent	19	8	5	6	32	22	29
9	Jayxun	20	7	3	10	22	25	24
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	20	6	4	10	23	37	22
11	Respublika FA	19	6	4	9	25	29	22
12	BuxDu	19	3	1	15	15	45	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	20	3	1	16	13	46	10
14	PFC Terdu	19	1	1	17	11	44	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Respublika FA	FC Yaypan Fergana
FC Lochin	3-0 W	0-0 D
Fardu Ferghana	2-3 L	0-1 L
Kattaqorgon	3-1 W	1-2 L
Metallurg Bekabad	1-3 L	1-1 D
FK Orol Nukus	0-0 D	2-5 L
Gazalkent	0-7 L	0-0 D
Shurtan	1-2 L	1-4 L
Jayxun	1-2 L	1-3 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Respublika FA (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Respublika FA

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	3-0	1	3	W
17/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
12/09	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
07/09	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	5	3	L
10/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
04/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-7	2	6	L
30/07	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-2	6	0	L
25/07	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
08/06	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	3-0	9	3	W

FC Yaypan Fergana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-4	2-5	4	4	L
11/09	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
06/09	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-4	11	8	L
25/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-3	7	2	L
20/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	10	0	W
15/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/08	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/07	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
25/07	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Respublika FA vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Respublika FA win (51%). Probabilities: Respublika FA 51%, draw 25%, FC Yaypan Fergana 24%.

How many goals are expected in Respublika FA vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Respublika FA 1.79 · FC Yaypan Fergana 1.17), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Respublika FA vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.