Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 13/10, 13:00
Prediction: Metallurg Bekabad vs Shurtan
Team pages: Metallurg Bekabad · Shurtan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Metallurg Bekabad1.45
Shurtan1.32
1X2
Metallurg Bekabad
Draw
Shurtan
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Metallurg Bekabad
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Shurtan
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Metallurg Bekabad
4–2
Shurtan
(6 last)
- Shurtan1-0Metallurg Bekabad
- Shurtan0-1Metallurg Bekabad
- Metallurg Bekabad4-2Shurtan
- Shurtan1-0Metallurg Bekabad
- Metallurg Bekabad3-2Shurtan
- Metallurg Bekabad1-0Shurtan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Metallurg Bekabad 1569 · Shurtan 1573
| Metallurg Bekabad | Draw | Shurtan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Metallurg Bekabad: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Metallurg Bekabad | Shurtan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/0/20% | 83/17/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 2.8 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Metallurg Bekabad 4–0–2 Shurtan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division | Shurtan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Metallurg Bekabad |
| 26/08/17 Uzbekistan PFL | Shurtan | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Metallurg Bekabad |
| 31/03/17 Uzbekistan PFL | Metallurg Bekabad | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Shurtan |
| 13/08/16 Uzbekistan PFL | Shurtan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Metallurg Bekabad |
| 02/04/16 Uzbekistan PFL | Metallurg Bekabad | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Shurtan |
| 20/11/15 Uzbekistan PFL | Metallurg Bekabad | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Shurtan |
Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Orol Nukus | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 45 | 13 | 52 |
| 2 | Shurtan | 21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 20 | 45 |
| 3 | Metallurg Bekabad | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 16 | 43 |
| 4 | Fardu Ferghana | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 32 | 40 |
| 5 | FC Lochin | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 26 | 38 |
| 6 | Gazalkent | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 26 | 38 |
| 7 | Kattaqorgon | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 20 | 36 |
| 8 | Olympic Mobiuz | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 32 |
| 9 | Respublika FA | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 30 | 28 |
| 10 | Jayxun | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 30 | 24 |
| 11 | FC Yaypan Fergana | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 24 | 39 | 22 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 21 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 54 | 10 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 21 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 49 | 10 |
| 14 | PFC Terdu | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 54 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Metallurg Bekabad | Shurtan |
|---|---|---|
| Jayxun | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Olympic Mobiuz | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| BuxDu | 4-0 W | 4-2 W |
| PFC Terdu | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Respublika FA | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Yaypan Fergana | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| FC Lochin | 5-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 0 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Metallurg Bekabad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/09 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/09 | Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/08 | BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/08 | PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/08 | FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/08 | FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 31/07 | FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/07 | Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
Shurtan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 21/09 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 10/08 | Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 0-0 | 15 | 2 | D |
| 05/08 | BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Metallurg Bekabad vs Shurtan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Metallurg Bekabad win (40%). Probabilities: Metallurg Bekabad 40%, draw 27%, Shurtan 34%.
How many goals are expected in Metallurg Bekabad vs Shurtan?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Metallurg Bekabad 1.45 · Shurtan 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Metallurg Bekabad vs Shurtan?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.