Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 12/10, 13:00

Prediction: FC Lochin vs Olympic Mobiuz

Team pages: FC Lochin · Olympic Mobiuz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

FC Lochin1.44

Olympic Mobiuz1.61

1X2

34% 25% 41%

FC Lochin Draw Olympic Mobiuz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lochin 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWDLLW

Olympic Mobiuz 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Lochin 1–0 Olympic Mobiuz (1 last)

Olympic Mobiuz2-3FC Lochin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lochin 1507 · Olympic Mobiuz 1541

	FC Lochin	Draw	Olympic Mobiuz
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lochin	Olympic Mobiuz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	14/29/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.5	2.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.73
2	2.55 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.25 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +10’	2.20	3.60	2.55
06:30 +31’	2.50▲	3.60	2.25▼
07:53 +9’	2.40▼	3.60	2.35▲
11:00 +2’	2.35▼	3.50▼	2.45▲
11:59 +3’	2.63▲	3.60▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:25 +37’	2.80	3.13	2.23
09:55 +6’	2.80	3.14▲	2.22▼
11:01	2.53▼	3.66▲	2.26▲
11:27 +35’	2.51▼	3.73▲	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lochin 1–0–0 Olympic Mobiuz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Olympic Mobiuz	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Lochin

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	21	16	4	1	45	13	52
2	Shurtan	21	14	3	4	38	20	45
3	Metallurg Bekabad	21	13	4	4	49	16	43
4	Fardu Ferghana	22	11	7	4	39	32	40
5	FC Lochin	22	11	5	6	34	26	38
6	Gazalkent	22	11	5	6	41	26	38
7	Kattaqorgon	21	11	3	7	27	20	36
8	Olympic Mobiuz	20	9	5	6	37	24	32
9	Respublika FA	21	8	4	9	30	30	28
10	Jayxun	22	7	3	12	24	30	24
11	FC Yaypan Fergana	21	6	4	11	24	39	22
12	BuxDu	21	3	1	17	18	54	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	21	3	1	17	15	49	10
14	PFC Terdu	22	1	1	20	12	54	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lochin	Olympic Mobiuz
BuxDu	6-2 W	2-1 W
FK Orol Nukus	0-2 L	2-1 W
Gazalkent	1-1 D	1-0 W
Shurtan	1-0 W	0-0 D
Jayxun	1-0 W	2-1 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	1-2 L	4-1 W
PFC Terdu	2-1 W	3-0 W
Metallurg Bekabad	0-5 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Olympic Mobiuz (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lochin

LDWLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	4-0	6-2	2	4	W
21/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
13/09	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
06/09	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	1	5	W
15/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	6	5	W
05/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/07	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-5	2	3	L

Olympic Mobiuz

LWWWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
06/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
02/09	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
14/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	5	6	W
10/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	4	2	D
05/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
30/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
24/07	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
18/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-2	2-3	12	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lochin vs Olympic Mobiuz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olympic Mobiuz win (41%). Probabilities: FC Lochin 34%, draw 25%, Olympic Mobiuz 41%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lochin vs Olympic Mobiuz?

The model expects 3.05 goals (FC Lochin 1.44 · Olympic Mobiuz 1.61), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lochin vs Olympic Mobiuz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.