Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 12/10, 12:00

Prediction: Fardu Ferghana vs Kattaqorgon

Team pages: Fardu Ferghana · Kattaqorgon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Fardu Ferghana2.04

Kattaqorgon1.13

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Fardu Ferghana Draw Kattaqorgon

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Fardu Ferghana 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDWWD

Kattaqorgon 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fardu Ferghana 0–1 Kattaqorgon (1 last)

Kattaqorgon3-0Fardu Ferghana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fardu Ferghana 1571 · Kattaqorgon 1502

	Fardu Ferghana	Draw	Kattaqorgon
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	59%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fardu Ferghana (rating 1571 vs 1502).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fardu Ferghana	Kattaqorgon
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.9	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 10:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.53▼	Bet365 1.53
X	3.90 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.99 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +45’	1.65	3.90	4.00
06:58 +3’	1.57▼	4.00▲	4.33▲
07:49 +12’	1.67▲	3.90▼	3.80▼
08:54 +7’	1.53▼	4.20▲	4.33▲
09:59 +2’	1.53	4.33▲	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:30 +30’	1.69	3.61	3.89
08:55 +6’	1.51▼	4.06▲	4.55▲
09:30 +31’	1.50▼	4.10▲	4.60▲
10:38 +24’	1.47▼	4.29▲	4.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fardu Ferghana 0–0–1 Kattaqorgon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Kattaqorgon	3-0 HT 1-0	Fardu Ferghana

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	21	16	4	1	45	13	52
2	Shurtan	21	14	3	4	38	20	45
3	Metallurg Bekabad	21	13	4	4	49	16	43
4	Fardu Ferghana	22	11	7	4	39	32	40
5	FC Lochin	22	11	5	6	34	26	38
6	Gazalkent	22	11	5	6	41	26	38
7	Kattaqorgon	21	11	3	7	27	20	36
8	Olympic Mobiuz	20	9	5	6	37	24	32
9	Respublika FA	21	8	4	9	30	30	28
10	Jayxun	22	7	3	12	24	30	24
11	FC Yaypan Fergana	21	6	4	11	24	39	22
12	BuxDu	21	3	1	17	18	54	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	21	3	1	17	15	49	10
14	PFC Terdu	22	1	1	20	12	54	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fardu Ferghana	Kattaqorgon
BuxDu	3-1 W	2-0 W
Respublika FA	3-2 W	1-3 L
FK Orol Nukus	1-1 D	0-1 L
Gazalkent	1-0 W	2-4 L
Shurtan	3-1 W	0-1 L
Jayxun	0-0 D	2-1 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	5-1 W	2-0 W
PFC Terdu	5-1 W	2-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 2 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Fardu Ferghana (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fardu Ferghana

WWWDWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
22/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	3-1	7	3	W
12/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
07/09	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
28/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	2	2	W
14/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	5-1	7	4	W
04/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	5-1	3	4	W
31/07	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	8	8	W

Kattaqorgon

LWWWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
07/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	1	9	L
21/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-4	5	3	L
15/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	6	1	L
09/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	2	5	W
04/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/07	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/06	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fardu Ferghana vs Kattaqorgon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fardu Ferghana win (58%). Probabilities: Fardu Ferghana 58%, draw 22%, Kattaqorgon 20%.

How many goals are expected in Fardu Ferghana vs Kattaqorgon?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Fardu Ferghana 2.04 · Kattaqorgon 1.13), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fardu Ferghana vs Kattaqorgon?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.