Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 08/10, 13:00

Prediction: Kattaqorgon vs Metallurg Bekabad

Team pages: Kattaqorgon · Metallurg Bekabad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Kattaqorgon1.46

Metallurg Bekabad1.33

1X2

40% 27% 34%

Kattaqorgon Draw Metallurg Bekabad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Kattaqorgon 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLLLW

Metallurg Bekabad 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Kattaqorgon 0–1–0 Metallurg Bekabad (1 last)

Metallurg Bekabad1-1Kattaqorgon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kattaqorgon 1492 · Metallurg Bekabad 1570

	Kattaqorgon	Draw	Metallurg Bekabad
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metallurg Bekabad (rating 1492 vs 1570).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kattaqorgon	Metallurg Bekabad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	80/0/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +17’	2.25	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kattaqorgon 0–1–0 Metallurg Bekabad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Metallurg Bekabad	1-1 HT 1-1	Kattaqorgon

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	20	15	4	1	42	13	49
2	Shurtan	20	13	3	4	35	19	42
3	Metallurg Bekabad	20	12	4	4	46	16	40
4	Fardu Ferghana	20	11	6	3	37	27	39
5	Kattaqorgon	19	10	3	6	24	17	33
6	FC Lochin	20	9	5	6	26	23	32
7	Gazalkent	20	9	5	6	36	23	32
8	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
9	Jayxun	20	7	3	10	22	25	24
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	20	6	4	10	23	37	22
11	Respublika FA	19	6	4	9	25	29	22
12	BuxDu	20	3	1	16	16	48	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	20	3	1	16	13	46	10
14	PFC Terdu	20	1	1	18	12	48	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kattaqorgon	Metallurg Bekabad
BuxDu	2-0 W	4-0 W
Respublika FA	1-3 L	3-1 W
FK Orol Nukus	0-1 L	0-1 L
Gazalkent	2-4 L	2-3 L
Jayxun	2-1 W	1-0 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	2-0 W	1-0 W
PFC Terdu	2-0 W	3-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Lochin	0-2 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kattaqorgon

LWWWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
07/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	1	9	L
21/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-4	5	3	L
15/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	6	1	L
09/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	2	5	W
04/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/07	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/06	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

Metallurg Bekabad

LWLDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	5	1	W
02/09	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
27/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
20/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	6	3	W
10/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
31/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-0	2	3	W
23/07	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-3	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kattaqorgon vs Metallurg Bekabad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kattaqorgon win (40%). Probabilities: Kattaqorgon 40%, draw 27%, Metallurg Bekabad 34%.

How many goals are expected in Kattaqorgon vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Kattaqorgon 1.46 · Metallurg Bekabad 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kattaqorgon vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.