Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 07/10, 13:00

Prediction: Olympic Mobiuz vs Fardu Ferghana

Team pages: Olympic Mobiuz · Fardu Ferghana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Olympic Mobiuz1.68

Fardu Ferghana1.45

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Olympic Mobiuz Draw Fardu Ferghana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Olympic Mobiuz 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Fardu Ferghana 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Olympic Mobiuz 2–1–2 Fardu Ferghana (5 last)

Fardu Ferghana2-1Olympic Mobiuz
Fardu Ferghana3-2Olympic Mobiuz
Olympic Mobiuz2-1Fardu Ferghana
Fardu Ferghana0-1Olympic Mobiuz
Olympic Mobiuz0-0Fardu Ferghana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olympic Mobiuz 1554 · Fardu Ferghana 1594

	Olympic Mobiuz	Draw	Fardu Ferghana
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fardu Ferghana (rating 1554 vs 1594).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olympic Mobiuz	Fardu Ferghana
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.1	2.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +4’	2.15	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +91’	1.99	3.43	3.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olympic Mobiuz 2–1–2 Fardu Ferghana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Fardu Ferghana	2-1 HT 2-1	Olympic Mobiuz
04/10/25 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Fardu Ferghana	3-2 HT 2-1	Olympic Mobiuz
11/08/25 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Olympic Mobiuz	2-1 HT 2-0	Fardu Ferghana
18/05/25 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Fardu Ferghana	0-1 HT 0-1	Olympic Mobiuz
05/04/25 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Olympic Mobiuz	0-0	Fardu Ferghana

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	20	15	4	1	42	13	49
2	Shurtan	20	13	3	4	35	19	42
3	Metallurg Bekabad	20	12	4	4	46	16	40
4	Fardu Ferghana	20	11	6	3	37	27	39
5	Kattaqorgon	19	10	3	6	24	17	33
6	FC Lochin	20	9	5	6	26	23	32
7	Gazalkent	20	9	5	6	36	23	32
8	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
9	Jayxun	20	7	3	10	22	25	24
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	20	6	4	10	23	37	22
11	Respublika FA	19	6	4	9	25	29	22
12	BuxDu	20	3	1	16	16	48	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	20	3	1	16	13	46	10
14	PFC Terdu	20	1	1	18	12	48	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olympic Mobiuz	Fardu Ferghana
BuxDu	2-1 W	3-1 W
FK Orol Nukus	2-1 W	1-1 D
Gazalkent	1-0 W	1-0 W
Shurtan	0-0 D	3-1 W
Jayxun	2-1 W	0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	4-1 W	5-1 W
PFC Terdu	3-0 W	5-1 W
FC Lochin	2-3 L	2-1 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	6-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	7 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fardu Ferghana (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olympic Mobiuz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
02/09	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
14/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	5	6	W
10/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	4	2	D
05/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
30/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
24/07	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
18/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-2	2-3	12	4	L
14/06	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	6-1	1	5	W

Fardu Ferghana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	3-1	7	3	W
12/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
07/09	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
28/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	2	2	W
14/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	5-1	7	4	W
04/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	5-1	3	4	W
31/07	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
25/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olympic Mobiuz vs Fardu Ferghana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olympic Mobiuz win (42%). Probabilities: Olympic Mobiuz 42%, draw 26%, Fardu Ferghana 32%.

How many goals are expected in Olympic Mobiuz vs Fardu Ferghana?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Olympic Mobiuz 1.68 · Fardu Ferghana 1.45), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Olympic Mobiuz vs Fardu Ferghana?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.