Football · Italy Serie A · 23/08, 18:30
Prediction: Venezia vs Lecce
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Venezia1.48
Lecce1.14
1X2
Venezia
Draw
Lecce
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Venezia
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Lecce
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Venezia
1–3–2
Lecce
(6 last)
- Lecce1-1Venezia
- Venezia0-1Lecce
- Lecce1-1Venezia
- Venezia1-0Lecce
- Venezia2-3Lecce
- Lecce2-2Venezia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Venezia 1572 · Lecce 1527
| Venezia | Draw | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 32% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Venezia (rating 1572 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Lecce: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Venezia | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.9 | 2.6 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Venezia 1–3–2 Lecce
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/25 Italy Serie A | Lecce | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Venezia |
| 25/11/24 Italy Serie A | Venezia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lecce |
| 20/05/21 Italy Serie B | Lecce | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Venezia |
| 17/05/21 Italy Serie B | Venezia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lecce |
| 16/03/21 Italy Serie B | Venezia | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Lecce |
| 05/12/20 Italy Serie B | Lecce | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Venezia |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Milan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bologna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cagliari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Como | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Frosinone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Genoa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Inter Milan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juventus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lazio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Parma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sassuolo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Torino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Udinese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lecce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Venezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Venezia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Modena Coppa Italia |
1-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Brest Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | St Etienne Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Galatasaray Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/07 | Vis Pesaro Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 19/07 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | Palermo Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Spezia Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Empoli Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Bari Italy Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Lecce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Palermo Coppa Italia |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Monopoli Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/07 | NK Bistrica Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Istra 1961 Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Stiinta Poli Timisoara Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Pisa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Venezia vs Lecce?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Venezia win (43%). Probabilities: Venezia 43%, draw 30%, Lecce 27%.
How many goals are expected in Venezia vs Lecce?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Venezia 1.48 · Lecce 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Lecce?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.