Football · Italy Serie A · 29/08, 20:45

Prediction: Juventus vs Parma

Team pages: Juventus · Parma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Juventus1.82

Parma0.29

1X2

76% 18% 6%

Juventus Draw Parma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 60%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Juventus 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDWLD

Parma 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Juventus 4–1–1 Parma (6 last)

Parma1-4Juventus
Juventus2-0Parma
Parma1-0Juventus
Juventus2-2Parma
Juventus3-1Parma
Parma0-4Juventus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juventus 1600 · Parma 1444

	Juventus	Draw	Parma
Our model	75%	21%	5%
Market	77%	15%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juventus (rating 1600 vs 1444).
H2H favours Juventus: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juventus	Parma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.4	1.5 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 1 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.62 ★
2	13.00 → 13.00	Pinn 13.11

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:55 +2’	1.20	6.00	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:48 +9’	1.20	6.62	13.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juventus 4–1–1 Parma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Italy Serie A	Parma	1-4 HT 0-2	Juventus
24/08/25 Italy Serie A	Juventus	2-0 HT 0-0	Parma
23/04/25 Italy Serie A	Parma	1-0 HT 1-0	Juventus
30/10/24 Italy Serie A	Juventus	2-2 HT 1-2	Parma
21/04/21 Italy Serie A	Juventus	3-1 HT 1-1	Parma
19/12/20 Italy Serie A	Parma	0-4 HT 0-2	Juventus

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter Milan	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
2	Napoli	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Como	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Udinese	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Parma	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
20	Monza	1	0	0	1	1	4	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juventus	Parma
Sassuolo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Udinese	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Parma (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juventus

WDWWWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Torino Italy Serie A	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
17/05	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
09/05	Lecce Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
03/05	Verona Italy Serie A	0-1	1-1	14	5	D
26/04	AC Milan Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/04	Bologna Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
11/04	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/04	Genoa Italy Serie A	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
21/03	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
14/03	Udinese Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Parma

LDDWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cagliari Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
24/05	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
17/05	Como Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
10/05	Roma Italy Serie A	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
03/05	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
25/04	Pisa Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/04	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
12/04	Napoli Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
04/04	Lazio Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
21/03	Cremonese Italy Serie A	0-0	0-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juventus vs Parma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juventus win (76%). Probabilities: Juventus 76%, draw 18%, Parma 6%.

How many goals are expected in Juventus vs Parma?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Juventus 1.82 · Parma 0.29), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juventus vs Parma?

The model gives a 60% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.