Football · Italy Serie A · 30/08, 20:45

Prediction: Cagliari vs Inter Milan

Team pages: Cagliari · Inter Milan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Cagliari0.73

Inter Milan1.75

1X2

14% 25% 61%

Cagliari Draw Inter Milan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cagliari 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDLWWW

Inter Milan 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWDDW

Head-to-head

Cagliari 0–1–5 Inter Milan (6 last)

Inter Milan3-0Cagliari
Cagliari0-2Inter Milan
Inter Milan3-1Cagliari
Cagliari0-3Inter Milan
Inter Milan2-2Cagliari
Cagliari0-2Inter Milan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cagliari 1525 · Inter Milan 1650

	Cagliari	Draw	Inter Milan
Our model	14%	25%	61%
Market	14%	25%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Milan (rating 1525 vs 1650).
H2H favours Inter Milan: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cagliari	Inter Milan
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	2.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.50

X3.80

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 7.03
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.32 ★
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +2’	6.50	3.80	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34	7.03	4.32	1.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cagliari 0–1–5 Inter Milan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Italy Serie A	Inter Milan	3-0 HT 0-0	Cagliari
27/09/25 Italy Serie A	Cagliari	0-2 HT 0-1	Inter Milan
12/04/25 Italy Serie A	Inter Milan	3-1 HT 2-0	Cagliari
28/12/24 Italy Serie A	Cagliari	0-3 HT 0-0	Inter Milan
14/04/24 Italy Serie A	Inter Milan	2-2 HT 1-0	Cagliari
28/08/23 Italy Serie A	Cagliari	0-2 HT 0-2	Inter Milan

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter Milan	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
2	Napoli	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Lecce	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	AC Milan	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	Juventus	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Como	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Udinese	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Torino	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	Parma	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Genoa	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
18	Venezia	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
20	Monza	1	0	0	1	1	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cagliari	Inter Milan
Parma	1-0 W	2-0 W
Torino	2-1 W	2-2 D
Bologna	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cagliari

LLWLWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Parma Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
24/05	AC Milan Italy Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
17/05	Torino Italy Serie A	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
09/05	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
03/05	Bologna Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/04	Atalanta Italy Serie A	2-2	3-2	4	0	W
17/04	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-0	0-3	9	2	L
11/04	Cremonese Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
04/04	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
20/03	Napoli Italy Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	4	L

Inter Milan

DWWWDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Monza Italy Serie A	1-1	4-1	3	4	W
23/05	Bologna Italy Serie A	1-2	3-3	4	2	D
17/05	Verona Italy Serie A	0-0	1-1	10	2	D
09/05	Lazio Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
03/05	Parma Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
26/04	Torino Italy Serie A	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
17/04	Cagliari Italy Serie A	0-0	3-0	4	2	W
12/04	Como Italy Serie A	1-2	4-3	1	10	W
05/04	Roma Italy Serie A	2-1	5-2	7	1	W
22/03	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cagliari vs Inter Milan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Inter Milan win (61%). Probabilities: Cagliari 14%, draw 25%, Inter Milan 61%.

How many goals are expected in Cagliari vs Inter Milan?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Cagliari 0.73 · Inter Milan 1.75), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Inter Milan?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.