Football · Italy Serie A · 23/08, 20:45

Prediction: Torino vs AC Milan

Team pages: Torino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Torino1.05

AC Milan1.76

1X2

21% 26% 53%

Torino Draw AC Milan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Torino 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDLWLD

AC Milan 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLLWL

Head-to-head

Torino 2–1–3 AC Milan (6 last)

AC Milan3-2Torino
Torino2-3AC Milan
Torino2-1AC Milan
AC Milan2-2Torino
Torino3-1AC Milan
AC Milan4-1Torino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torino 1551 · AC Milan 1486

	Torino	Draw	AC Milan
Our model	21%	26%	53%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torino (rating 1551 vs 1486).
H2H favours AC Milan: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torino	AC Milan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.5	0.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.56
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.69 ★
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.83

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 3.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:34 +5’	4.33	3.60	1.80
05:50 +1’	4.50▲	3.60	1.80
06:10 +4’	4.75▲	3.70▲	1.75▼
16:11 +15’	4.75	3.60▼	1.75
12:51 +2’	4.50▼	3.60	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:38 +1’	4.53	3.79	1.79
22:05	4.57▲	3.82▲	1.80▲
08:56 +2’	4.56▼	3.82	1.81▲
21:11 +1’	4.59▲	3.83▲	1.79▼
11:44	4.63▲	3.86▲	1.78▼
14:16	4.68▲	3.87▲	1.77▼
12:07 +1’	4.70▲	3.77▼	1.79▲
16:25 +1’	4.74▲	3.78▲	1.79▼
23:45	4.63▼	3.75▼	1.81▲
05:56	4.63	3.72▼	1.81▲
12:49 +3’	4.63	3.73▲	1.81
21:09 +2’	4.56▼	3.70▼	1.83▲
00:18 +2’	4.56	3.69▼	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torino 2–1–3 AC Milan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Italy Serie A	AC Milan	3-2 HT 1-1	Torino
08/12/25 Italy Serie A	Torino	2-3 HT 2-1	AC Milan
22/02/25 Italy Serie A	Torino	2-1 HT 1-0	AC Milan
17/08/24 Italy Serie A	AC Milan	2-2 HT 0-1	Torino
18/05/24 Italy Serie A	Torino	3-1 HT 2-0	AC Milan
26/08/23 Italy Serie A	AC Milan	4-1 HT 3-1	Torino

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter Milan	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
2	Napoli	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Como	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	Udinese	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
20	Monza	1	0	0	1	1	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torino	AC Milan
Juventus	2-2 D	0-0 D
Cagliari	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sassuolo	2-1 W	0-2 L
Udinese	0-2 L	0-3 L
Verona	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Torino (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torino

WLWWDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Juventus Italy Serie A	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
17/05	Cagliari Italy Serie A	1-2	1-2	1	2	L
08/05	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
02/05	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
26/04	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
19/04	Cremonese Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
11/04	Verona Italy Serie A	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
05/04	Pisa Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
21/03	AC Milan Italy Serie A	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
13/03	Parma Italy Serie A	1-1	4-1	2	4	W

AC Milan

LWLLWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Cagliari Italy Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/05	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/05	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-2	2-3	2	6	L
03/05	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
26/04	Juventus Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
19/04	Verona Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
11/04	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
06/04	Napoli Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
21/03	Torino Italy Serie A	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
15/03	Lazio Italy Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torino vs AC Milan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Milan win (53%). Probabilities: Torino 21%, draw 26%, AC Milan 53%.

How many goals are expected in Torino vs AC Milan?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Torino 1.05 · AC Milan 1.76), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Torino vs AC Milan?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.