Football · Italy Serie A · 24/08, 20:45

Prediction: Roma vs Fiorentina

Team pages: Fiorentina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Roma1.88

Fiorentina0.95

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Roma Draw Fiorentina

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Roma 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWWWW

Fiorentina 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDLDWD

Head-to-head

Roma 3–2–1 Fiorentina (6 last)

Roma4-0Fiorentina
Fiorentina1-2Roma
Roma1-0Fiorentina
Fiorentina5-1Roma
Fiorentina2-2Roma
Roma1-1Fiorentina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Roma 1564 · Fiorentina 1565

	Roma	Draw	Fiorentina
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Roma: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Roma	Fiorentina
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 21:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.66
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	5.75 → 5.25▼	Pinn 5.42 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:38 +5’	1.55	3.90	5.75
06:06 +4’	1.57▲	4.00▲	6.00▲
14:24 +7’	1.57	4.10▲	5.75▼
23:58 +1’	1.61▲	4.00▼	5.50▼
21:47 +3’	1.61	4.00	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:43	1.58	4.16	5.85
23:27 +1’	1.59▲	4.15▼	5.90▲
11:55	1.59▼	4.16▲	5.92▲
17:22 +1’	1.59▼	4.17▲	5.97▲
03:53 +1’	1.59	4.16▼	5.97
12:25 +1’	1.60▲	4.13▼	5.87▼
23:58	1.63▲	4.06▼	5.64▼
21:45 +4’	1.66▲	3.99▼	5.41▼
06:17 +1’	1.66	3.99	5.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Roma 3–2–1 Fiorentina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Italy Serie A	Roma	4-0 HT 3-0	Fiorentina
05/10/25 Italy Serie A	Fiorentina	1-2 HT 1-2	Roma
04/05/25 Italy Serie A	Roma	1-0 HT 1-0	Fiorentina
27/10/24 Italy Serie A	Fiorentina	5-1 HT 3-1	Roma
10/03/24 Italy Serie A	Fiorentina	2-2 HT 1-0	Roma
10/12/23 Italy Serie A	Roma	1-1 HT 1-0	Fiorentina

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter Milan	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
2	Napoli	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Como	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Udinese	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Parma	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
20	Monza	1	0	0	1	1	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Roma	Fiorentina
Verona	2-0 W	1-0 W
Lazio	2-0 W	1-0 W
Atalanta	1-1 D	1-1 D
Inter Milan	2-5 L	1-1 D
Lecce	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Roma (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Roma

LWLWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Verona Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
17/05	Lazio Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
10/05	Parma Italy Serie A	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
04/05	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
25/04	Bologna Italy Serie A	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/04	Atalanta Italy Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
10/04	Pisa Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	1	2	W
05/04	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	1-2	2-5	4	1	L
22/03	Lecce Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
15/03	Como Italy Serie A	1-0	1-2	1	5	L

Fiorentina

WDWWDDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/05	Atalanta Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/05	Juventus Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
10/05	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
04/05	Roma Italy Serie A	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
26/04	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
20/04	Lecce Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
13/04	Lazio Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
04/04	Verona Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
22/03	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
16/03	Cremonese Italy Serie A	2-0	4-1	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Roma vs Fiorentina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Roma win (58%). Probabilities: Roma 58%, draw 24%, Fiorentina 18%.

How many goals are expected in Roma vs Fiorentina?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Roma 1.88 · Fiorentina 0.95), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Roma vs Fiorentina?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.