Football · Scotland League One · 14/11, 18:30

Prediction: Hamilton vs Ross County

Team pages: Hamilton · Ross County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Hamilton1.2

Ross County1.77

1X2

25% 25% 50%

Hamilton Draw Ross County

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hamilton 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Ross County 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hamilton 1–2–3 Ross County (6 last)

Ross County1-1Hamilton
Hamilton1-2Ross County
Hamilton0-0Ross County
Ross County2-1Hamilton
Hamilton1-2Ross County
Ross County0-2Hamilton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hamilton 1584 · Ross County 1651

	Hamilton	Draw	Ross County
Our model	25%	26%	50%
Market	25%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ross County (rating 1584 vs 1651).
H2H favours Ross County: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hamilton	Ross County
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	3.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	1.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6	4 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:00 +34’	3.60	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamilton 1–2–3 Ross County

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/10/26 Scotland League One	Ross County	1-1 HT 1-1	Hamilton
23/07/24 Scotland League Cup	Hamilton	1-2 HT 1-2	Ross County
21/01/23 Scotland FA Cup	Hamilton	0-0 HT 0-0	Ross County
12/05/21 Scotland Premiership	Ross County	2-1 HT 1-1	Hamilton
03/02/21 Scotland Premiership	Hamilton	1-2 HT 1-0	Ross County
19/12/20 Scotland Premiership	Ross County	0-2 HT 0-1	Hamilton

Standings · Scotland League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ross County	14	12	2	0	49	9	38
2	Hamilton	14	10	3	1	27	10	33
3	East Kilbride	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
4	Montrose	14	6	2	6	19	23	20
5	Airdrieonians	14	4	4	6	13	22	16
6	East Fife	14	3	6	5	13	17	15
7	Peterhead	14	4	1	9	12	25	13
8	Queen of South	14	4	1	9	14	38	13
9	Alloa	14	3	3	8	15	19	12
10	Cove Rangers	13	3	3	7	14	18	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hamilton	Ross County
Cove Rangers	0-4 L	2-0 W
Montrose	1-1 D	5-0 W
East Fife	2-1 W	2-2 D
Airdrieonians	2-1 W	4-0 W
Alloa	3-0 W	4-1 W
Peterhead	2-1 W	4-1 W
Queen of South	4-1 W	7-1 W
East Kilbride	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ross County (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hamilton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cove Rangers Scotland League One	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
31/10	Montrose Scotland League One	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/10	Ross County Scotland League One	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
24/10	East Fife Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
17/10	Airdrieonians Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
10/10	Alloa Scotland League One	3-0	3-0	4	5	W
03/10	Peterhead Scotland League One	0-0	2-1	7	2	W
19/09	Queen of South Scotland League One	3-1	4-1	9	2	W
05/09	East Kilbride Scotland League One	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
29/08	Cove Rangers Scotland League One	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

Ross County

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Peterhead Scotland League One	1-0	4-1	11	7	W
31/10	East Kilbride Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
27/10	Hamilton Scotland League One	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
24/10	Airdrieonians Scotland League One	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
17/10	Queen of South Scotland League One	5-0	7-1	5	6	W
10/10	Montrose Scotland League One	3-0	5-0	8	5	W
03/10	Alloa Scotland League One	1-0	4-1	7	5	W
19/09	Cove Rangers Scotland League One	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/09	Queen of South Scotland League One	2-0	8-0	7	4	W
05/09	East Fife Scotland League One	0-0	2-2	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hamilton vs Ross County?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ross County win (50%). Probabilities: Hamilton 25%, draw 25%, Ross County 50%.

How many goals are expected in Hamilton vs Ross County?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Hamilton 1.2 · Ross County 1.77), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hamilton vs Ross County?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.