Football · Scotland League One · 21/11, 18:30
Prediction: Montrose vs Alloa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Montrose1.68
Alloa1.49
1X2
Montrose
Draw
Alloa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Montrose
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Alloa
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montrose
2–4
Alloa
(6 last)
- Alloa3-0Montrose
- Montrose5-4Alloa
- Alloa4-1Montrose
- Montrose0-4Alloa
- Alloa0-1Montrose
- Alloa2-1Montrose
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montrose 1474 · Alloa 1422
| Montrose | Draw | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montrose (rating 1474 vs 1422).
- H2H favours Alloa: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montrose | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/0/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.4 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montrose 2–0–4 Alloa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 Scotland League One | Alloa | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Montrose |
| 14/03/26 Scotland League One | Montrose | 5-4 HT 2-2 | Alloa |
| 20/01/26 Scotland League One | Alloa | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Montrose |
| 08/11/25 Scotland League One | Montrose | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Alloa |
| 13/09/25 Scotland League One | Alloa | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montrose |
| 15/07/25 Scotland League Cup | Alloa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Montrose |
Standings · Scotland League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 51 | 10 | 41 |
| 2 | Hamilton | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 24 |
| 4 | Montrose | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 20 |
| 5 | Airdrieonians | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 19 |
| 6 | East Fife | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Cove Rangers | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 15 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 26 | 13 |
| 9 | Queen of South | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 40 | 13 |
| 10 | Alloa | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 23 | 12 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montrose | Alloa |
|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| East Fife | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Hamilton | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Peterhead | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| East Kilbride | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Ross County | 0-5 L | 1-4 L |
| Airdrieonians | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montrose
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/11 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/10 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Ross County Scotland League One |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/11 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/10 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 17/10 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/10 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Ross County Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montrose vs Alloa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montrose win (41%). Probabilities: Montrose 41%, draw 26%, Alloa 33%.
How many goals are expected in Montrose vs Alloa?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Montrose 1.68 · Alloa 1.49), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Montrose vs Alloa?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.