Football · Scotland League One · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Queen of South vs Hamilton

Team pages: Queen of South · Hamilton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Queen of South1.03

Hamilton2.15

1X2

16% 22% 62%

Queen of South Draw Hamilton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Queen of South 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWLLL

Hamilton 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDDLL

Head-to-head

Queen of South 3–1–2 Hamilton (6 last)

Hamilton4-1Queen of South
Hamilton1-3Queen of South
Queen of South4-1Hamilton
Hamilton1-2Queen of South
Queen of South1-4Hamilton
Hamilton0-0Queen of South

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queen of South 1462 · Hamilton 1541

	Queen of South	Draw	Hamilton
Our model	16%	22%	62%
Market	16%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamilton (rating 1462 vs 1541).
H2H favours Queen of South: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queen of South	Hamilton
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.9	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.20

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +20’	5.50	4.20	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queen of South 3–1–2 Hamilton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Scotland League One	Hamilton	4-1 HT 3-1	Queen of South
14/03/26 Scotland League One	Hamilton	1-3 HT 1-1	Queen of South
27/12/25 Scotland League One	Queen of South	4-1 HT 2-0	Hamilton
24/10/25 Scotland League One	Hamilton	1-2 HT 0-1	Queen of South
09/08/25 Scotland League One	Queen of South	1-4 HT 0-2	Hamilton
30/03/24 Scotland League One	Hamilton	0-0 HT 0-0	Queen of South

Standings · Scotland League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ross County	15	13	2	0	51	10	41
2	Hamilton	15	10	3	2	28	12	33
3	East Kilbride	14	7	3	4	27	19	24
4	Montrose	15	6	2	7	19	26	20
5	Airdrieonians	15	5	4	6	15	22	19
6	East Fife	15	4	6	5	14	17	18
7	Cove Rangers	14	4	3	7	17	18	15
8	Peterhead	15	4	1	10	12	26	13
9	Queen of South	15	4	1	10	14	40	13
10	Alloa	15	3	3	9	16	23	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queen of South	Hamilton
Airdrieonians	0-2 L	2-1 W
East Kilbride	1-2 L	1-0 W
East Fife	0-2 L	2-1 W
Alloa	1-0 W	3-0 W
Ross County	1-7 L	1-2 L
Peterhead	1-0 W	2-1 W
Cove Rangers	4-3 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hamilton (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queen of South

DLLWWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Airdrieonians Scotland League One	0-1	0-2	8	6	L
07/11	East Kilbride Scotland League One	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
31/10	East Fife Scotland League One	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
24/10	Alloa Scotland League One	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/10	Ross County Scotland League One	0-5	1-7	3	6	L
10/10	Peterhead Scotland League One	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
03/10	Cove Rangers Scotland League One	2-0	4-3	6	6	W
19/09	Hamilton Scotland League One	1-3	1-4	0	2	L
15/09	Ross County Scotland League One	0-2	0-8	2	4	L
12/09	East Fife Scotland League One	0-0	1-1	4	7	D

Hamilton

WWWWWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Ross County Scotland League One	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
07/11	Cove Rangers Scotland League One	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
31/10	Montrose Scotland League One	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/10	Ross County Scotland League One	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
24/10	East Fife Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
17/10	Airdrieonians Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
10/10	Alloa Scotland League One	3-0	3-0	4	5	W
03/10	Peterhead Scotland League One	0-0	2-1	7	2	W
19/09	Queen of South Scotland League One	3-1	4-1	9	2	W
05/09	East Kilbride Scotland League One	1-0	1-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queen of South vs Hamilton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hamilton win (62%). Probabilities: Queen of South 16%, draw 22%, Hamilton 62%.

How many goals are expected in Queen of South vs Hamilton?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Queen of South 1.03 · Hamilton 2.15), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Queen of South vs Hamilton?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.