Prediction: Hamilton vs Montrose
Team pages: Hamilton · Montrose
- Montrose0-5Hamilton
- Montrose0-2Hamilton
- Hamilton1-1Montrose
- Montrose0-4Hamilton
- Hamilton2-0Montrose
- Montrose1-2Hamilton
| Hamilton | Draw | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamilton (rating 1667 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Hamilton: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamilton | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.5 | 1 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamilton 5–1–0 Montrose
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 Scotland League One | Montrose | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Hamilton |
| 18/04/26 Scotland League One | Montrose | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Hamilton |
| 28/02/26 Scotland League One | Hamilton | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Montrose |
| 18/10/25 Scotland League One | Montrose | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Hamilton |
| 02/08/25 Scotland League One | Hamilton | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Montrose |
| 20/04/24 Scotland League One | Montrose | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Hamilton |
Standings · Scotland League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 6 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrieonians | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamilton | Montrose |
|---|---|---|
| East Fife | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Airdrieonians | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Alloa | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Peterhead | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Queen of South | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| East Kilbride | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Cove Rangers | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Hamilton (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamilton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/10 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Alloa Scotland League One |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
3-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | East Fife Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Alloa Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
Montrose
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Ross County Scotland League One |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Alloa Scotland League One |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamilton vs Montrose?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamilton win (65%). Probabilities: Hamilton 65%, draw 21%, Montrose 13%.
How many goals are expected in Hamilton vs Montrose?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Hamilton 2.02 · Montrose 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamilton vs Montrose?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.