Football · Scotland League One · 07/11, 16:00
Prediction: Alloa vs Airdrieonians
Team pages: Alloa · Airdrieonians
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Alloa1.23
Airdrieonians1.44
1X2
Alloa
Draw
Airdrieonians
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Alloa
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Airdrieonians
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alloa
3–3
Airdrieonians
(6 last)
- Airdrieonians1-0Alloa
- Airdrieonians1-2Alloa
- Alloa1-0Airdrieonians
- Alloa2-3Airdrieonians
- Airdrieonians2-3Alloa
- Alloa0-1Airdrieonians
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alloa 1461 · Airdrieonians 1527
| Alloa | Draw | Airdrieonians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Airdrieonians (rating 1461 vs 1527).
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alloa | Airdrieonians | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 1.9 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 5.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alloa 3–0–3 Airdrieonians
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/26 Scotland League One | Airdrieonians | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alloa |
| 09/05/26 Scotland Championship Play-Offs | Airdrieonians | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Alloa |
| 05/05/26 Scotland Championship Play-Offs | Alloa | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Airdrieonians |
| 09/12/25 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Alloa | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Airdrieonians |
| 26/07/25 Scotland League Cup | Airdrieonians | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Alloa |
| 01/04/23 Scotland League One | Alloa | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Airdrieonians |
Standings · Scotland League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 45 | 8 | 35 |
| 2 | Hamilton | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 6 | 33 |
| 3 | Montrose | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 18 |
| 5 | Peterhead | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 21 | 13 |
| 6 | Airdrieonians | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 13 |
| 7 | Queen of South | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 13 |
| 8 | Alloa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 9 | East Fife | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alloa | Airdrieonians |
|---|---|---|
| Peterhead | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Queen of South | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| East Fife | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Hamilton | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Ross County | 1-4 L | 0-4 L |
| East Kilbride | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Cove Rangers | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 17/10 | East Fife Scotland League One |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/10 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Ross County Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Airdrieonians Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Airdrieonians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Ross County Scotland League One |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | East Kilbride Scotland League One |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | Montrose Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Alloa Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 29/08 | East Fife Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 22/08 | Ross County Scotland League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alloa vs Airdrieonians?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Airdrieonians win (41%). Probabilities: Alloa 32%, draw 27%, Airdrieonians 41%.
How many goals are expected in Alloa vs Airdrieonians?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Alloa 1.23 · Airdrieonians 1.44), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Alloa vs Airdrieonians?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.