Football · Scotland League One · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Cove Rangers vs Montrose

Team pages: Cove Rangers · Montrose

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Cove Rangers1.52

Montrose1.42

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Cove Rangers Draw Montrose

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cove Rangers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDLWW

Montrose 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLDWDL

Head-to-head

Cove Rangers 3–2–1 Montrose (6 last)

Montrose2-1Cove Rangers
Montrose2-3Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers3-1Montrose
Montrose0-3Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers3-3Montrose
Montrose2-2Cove Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cove Rangers 1561 · Montrose 1489

	Cove Rangers	Draw	Montrose
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cove Rangers (rating 1561 vs 1489).
H2H favours Cove Rangers: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cove Rangers	Montrose
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	0.8 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +3’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cove Rangers 3–2–1 Montrose

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Scotland League One	Montrose	2-1 HT 1-0	Cove Rangers
07/04/26 Scotland League One	Montrose	2-3 HT 0-1	Cove Rangers
17/02/26 Scotland League One	Cove Rangers	3-1 HT 2-0	Montrose
25/10/25 Scotland League One	Montrose	0-3 HT 0-1	Cove Rangers
16/08/25 Scotland League One	Cove Rangers	3-3 HT 2-1	Montrose
15/03/25 Scotland League One	Montrose	2-2 HT 0-0	Cove Rangers

Standings · Scotland League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ross County	14	12	2	0	49	9	38
2	Hamilton	14	10	3	1	27	10	33
3	East Kilbride	13	6	3	4	23	18	21
4	Montrose	14	6	2	6	19	23	20
5	Airdrieonians	14	4	4	6	13	22	16
6	East Fife	14	3	6	5	13	17	15
7	Peterhead	14	4	1	9	12	25	13
8	Queen of South	14	4	1	9	14	38	13
9	Alloa	14	3	3	8	15	19	12
10	Cove Rangers	13	3	3	7	14	18	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cove Rangers	Montrose
Hamilton	4-0 W	1-1 D
Airdrieonians	1-0 W	0-1 L
Peterhead	0-2 L	3-0 W
East Fife	1-1 D	1-2 L
Queen of South	3-4 L	2-1 W
Ross County	0-2 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cove Rangers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cove Rangers

WLDLLLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hamilton Scotland League One	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
31/10	Airdrieonians Scotland League One	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
17/10	Peterhead Scotland League One	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
10/10	East Fife Scotland League One	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
03/10	Queen of South Scotland League One	0-2	3-4	7	6	L
19/09	Ross County Scotland League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
12/09	Montrose Scotland League One	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
05/09	Alloa Scotland League One	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Hamilton Scotland League One	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
22/08	Peterhead Scotland League One	0-0	3-0	3	4	W

Montrose

WWWWLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	East Fife Scotland League One	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
31/10	Hamilton Scotland League One	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
24/10	Peterhead Scotland League One	2-0	3-0	6	5	W
17/10	East Kilbride Scotland League One	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
10/10	Ross County Scotland League One	0-3	0-5	1	5	L
03/10	Airdrieonians Scotland League One	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
19/09	East Fife Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
12/09	Cove Rangers Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	7	0	W
05/09	Peterhead Scotland League One	2-0	3-0	0	5	W
29/08	Queen of South Scotland League One	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cove Rangers vs Montrose?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cove Rangers win (39%). Probabilities: Cove Rangers 39%, draw 27%, Montrose 34%.

How many goals are expected in Cove Rangers vs Montrose?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Cove Rangers 1.52 · Montrose 1.42), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cove Rangers vs Montrose?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.