Football · Scotland Premiership · 02/08, 17:30
Prediction: Hibernian vs Motherwell
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Hibernian1.46
Motherwell1.22
1X2
Hibernian
Draw
Motherwell
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hibernian
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Motherwell
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hibernian
2–2–2
Motherwell
(6 last)
- Hibernian0-1Motherwell
- Motherwell0-0Hibernian
- Hibernian1-1Motherwell
- Motherwell2-0Hibernian
- Hibernian3-1Motherwell
- Motherwell0-3Hibernian
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hibernian 1484 · Motherwell 1479
| Hibernian | Draw | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hibernian | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.6 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.6 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hibernian 2–2–2 Motherwell
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Motherwell |
| 21/03/26 Scotland Premiership | Motherwell | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hibernian |
| 10/01/26 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Motherwell |
| 25/11/25 Scotland Premiership | Motherwell | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Hibernian |
| 11/01/25 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Motherwell |
| 30/11/24 Scotland Premiership | Motherwell | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Hibernian |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hearts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hibernian | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Falkirk | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Celtic | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Hearts | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hibernian
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Malisheva UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Brondby Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Cliftonville Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/06 | Shamrock Rovers Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 13/05 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
3-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 11/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Motherwell
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | HB Torshavn UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Genk Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 05/07 | AGF Aarhus Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 13/05 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 26/04 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hibernian vs Motherwell?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hibernian win (42%). Probabilities: Hibernian 42%, draw 28%, Motherwell 31%.
How many goals are expected in Hibernian vs Motherwell?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Hibernian 1.46 · Motherwell 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Motherwell?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.