Football · Scotland Premiership · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Dundee vs Aberdeen

Team pages: Dundee · Aberdeen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Dundee1.53

Aberdeen1.49

1X2

38% 27% 36%

Dundee Draw Aberdeen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWWLDW

Aberdeen 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Dundee 2–4 Aberdeen (6 last)

Dundee3-2Aberdeen
Aberdeen2-3Dundee
Dundee1-3Aberdeen
Aberdeen4-0Dundee
Dundee1-2Aberdeen
Aberdeen4-1Dundee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee 1510 · Aberdeen 1564

	Dundee	Draw	Aberdeen
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aberdeen (rating 1510 vs 1564).
H2H favours Aberdeen: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee	Aberdeen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	3.4 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +2’	2.50	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee 2–0–4 Aberdeen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	3-2 HT 1-2	Aberdeen
21/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	2-3 HT 1-2	Dundee
06/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-3 HT 0-2	Aberdeen
05/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	4-0 HT 3-0	Dundee
15/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-2 HT 0-1	Aberdeen
09/11/24 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	4-1 HT 0-0	Dundee

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Mirren	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Aberdeen	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Dundee Utd	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	Rangers	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Celtic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Dundee	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Hibernian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Kilmarnock	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Motherwell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	St Johnstone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hearts	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	Falkirk	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dundee

WLWLDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Clyde Scotland League Cup	0-0	4-0	7	0	W
21/07	Ross County Scotland League Cup	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/07	Everton Elite Club Friendlies	0-1	0-4	1	0	L
14/07	Annan Athletic Scotland League Cup	0-0	5-0	5	0	W
11/07	Airdrieonians Scotland League Cup	1-2	4-2	16	2	W
08/07	Brechin Club Friendly List	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
04/07	Maccabi Haifa Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
02/07	Paksi Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
27/06	Livingston UK Friendlies	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
17/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-2	3-2	7	0	W

Aberdeen

WLLLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
25/07	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Cup	2-0	3-0	14	2	W
22/07	Queen of South Scotland League Cup	1-1	4-1	16	2	W
18/07	Queen's Park Scotland League Cup	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
14/07	Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Cup	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Linfield UK Friendlies	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
04/07	FC Twente Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
17/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-3	2	0	L
12/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
09/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee vs Aberdeen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundee win (38%). Probabilities: Dundee 38%, draw 27%, Aberdeen 36%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee vs Aberdeen?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Dundee 1.53 · Aberdeen 1.49), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee vs Aberdeen?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.