Football · Scotland Premiership · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Motherwell vs Falkirk

Team pages: Motherwell · Falkirk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Motherwell1.76

Falkirk1.27

1X2

48% 26% 27%

Motherwell Draw Falkirk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Falkirk 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWDWL

Head-to-head

Motherwell 0–1–3 Falkirk (4 last)

Falkirk1-0Motherwell
Motherwell2-3Falkirk
Falkirk0-0Motherwell
Motherwell1-2Falkirk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell 1488 · Falkirk 1503

	Motherwell	Draw	Falkirk
Our model	48%	26%	27%
Market	48%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Falkirk: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell	Falkirk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/0/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:51 +2’	1.95	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell 0–1–3 Falkirk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Falkirk	1-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
04/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-3 HT 1-2	Falkirk
03/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Falkirk	0-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
18/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	1-2 HT 1-0	Falkirk

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Mirren	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Aberdeen	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Dundee Utd	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	Rangers	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Celtic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Dundee	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Hibernian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Kilmarnock	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Motherwell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	St Johnstone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hearts	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	Falkirk	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell	Falkirk
Genk	3-4 L	1-0 W
Hibernian	1-0 W	1-3 L
Hearts	1-1 D	0-3 L
Rangers	3-2 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Motherwell (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Motherwell

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	HB Torshavn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	3-0	1	0	W
23/07	HB Torshavn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
17/07	Genk Europe Friendlies	1-2	3-4	6	0	L
05/07	AGF Aarhus Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-4	1	3	L
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
13/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
09/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
11/04	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-3	4	3	L

Falkirk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
25/07	Stranraer Scotland League Cup	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
21/07	Alloa Scotland League Cup	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Genk Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
14/07	Ayr Scotland League Cup	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
11/07	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup	4-0	5-0	2	3	W
07/07	Airdrieonians UK Friendlies	0-1	2-1	12	0	W
16/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-3	2-5	7	3	L
13/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
09/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-3	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell vs Falkirk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motherwell win (48%). Probabilities: Motherwell 48%, draw 26%, Falkirk 27%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Falkirk?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Motherwell 1.76 · Falkirk 1.27), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Falkirk?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.