Football · Scotland Premiership · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Hearts vs Dundee Utd

Team pages: Hearts · Dundee Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Hearts1.98

Dundee Utd0.96

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Hearts Draw Dundee Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hearts 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLWLLL

Dundee Utd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hearts 3–1–2 Dundee Utd (6 last)

Dundee Utd0-3Hearts
Hearts1-1Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd2-3Hearts
Hearts0-1Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd0-1Hearts
Hearts0-1Dundee Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hearts 1518 · Dundee Utd 1478

	Hearts	Draw	Dundee Utd
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hearts (rating 1518 vs 1478).
H2H favours Hearts: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hearts	Dundee Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.7	3.3 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +3’	1.53	4.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hearts 3–1–2 Dundee Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	0-3 HT 0-2	Hearts
09/11/25 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	1-1 HT 1-1	Dundee Utd
10/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	2-3 HT 2-1	Hearts
06/04/25 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	0-1 HT 0-0	Dundee Utd
05/01/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Hearts
01/09/24 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	0-1 HT 0-0	Dundee Utd

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Mirren	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Aberdeen	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Dundee Utd	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
3	Rangers	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Celtic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Dundee	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Hibernian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Kilmarnock	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Motherwell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	St Johnstone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hearts	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	Falkirk	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hearts	Dundee Utd
Aberdeen	1-2 L	0-2 L
Livingston	1-2 L	0-0 D
Rangers	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hearts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
28/07	SK Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
21/07	SK Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-1	0-4	12	3	L
17/07	Rayo Vallecano Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	8	0	W
10/07	Livingston UK Friendlies	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
16/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	6	9	L
13/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
09/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
26/04	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	11	9	W

Dundee Utd

LLDDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/07	Salford City UK Friendlies	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
21/07	Spartans Scotland League Cup	1-0	4-0	17	3	W
18/07	Arbroath Scotland League Cup	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
14/07	Montrose Scotland League Cup	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
11/07	Stirling Scotland League Cup	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
17/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
12/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
09/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
02/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hearts vs Dundee Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hearts win (61%). Probabilities: Hearts 61%, draw 22%, Dundee Utd 17%.

How many goals are expected in Hearts vs Dundee Utd?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Hearts 1.98 · Dundee Utd 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hearts vs Dundee Utd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.