Football · Scotland Premiership · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: St Mirren vs Motherwell

Team pages: St Mirren · Motherwell

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

St Mirren1.35

Motherwell1.47

1X2

33% 28% 39%

St Mirren Draw Motherwell

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St Mirren 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWDWW

Motherwell 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLWWD

Head-to-head

St Mirren 1–2–3 Motherwell (6 last)

St Mirren0-5Motherwell
Motherwell2-0St Mirren
Motherwell1-4St Mirren
St Mirren0-0Motherwell
Motherwell2-2St Mirren
St Mirren0-1Motherwell

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Mirren 1554 · Motherwell 1517

	St Mirren	Draw	Motherwell
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Motherwell: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Mirren	Motherwell
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.30

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.10

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.86 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +4’	2.80	3.30	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:45	2.57	3.19	2.89
09:36	2.59▲	3.19	2.86▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Mirren 1–2–3 Motherwell

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-5 HT 0-2	Motherwell
03/01/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	St Mirren
01/11/25 Scotland League Cup	Motherwell	1-4 HT 0-2	St Mirren
09/08/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
15/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-2 HT 1-2	St Mirren
07/12/24 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-1 HT 0-0	Motherwell

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Dundee	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
3	St Mirren	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Motherwell	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Hearts	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
6	St Johnstone	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
7	Hibernian	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Aberdeen	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	Rangers	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Falkirk	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Dundee Utd	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
12	Kilmarnock	2	0	0	2	4	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Mirren	Motherwell
Falkirk	2-0 W	0-0 D
Celtic	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St Mirren (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Mirren

WWLLLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
12/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
09/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
02/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
25/04	Livingston Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
11/04	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
04/04	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
21/03	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	4	3	W

Motherwell

DLLWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
13/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
09/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
11/04	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
04/04	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
21/03	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Mirren vs Motherwell?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Motherwell win (39%). Probabilities: St Mirren 33%, draw 28%, Motherwell 39%.

How many goals are expected in St Mirren vs Motherwell?

The model expects 2.82 goals (St Mirren 1.35 · Motherwell 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Motherwell?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.