Football · Scotland Premiership · 02/09, 20:45

Prediction: Motherwell vs Dundee Utd

Team pages: Motherwell · Dundee Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Motherwell1.62

Dundee Utd1.05

1X2

50% 26% 24%

Motherwell Draw Dundee Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLWWD

Dundee Utd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDDLL

Head-to-head

Motherwell 4–1–1 Dundee Utd (6 last)

Motherwell2-0Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd0-0Motherwell
Motherwell2-0Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd1-0Motherwell
Motherwell4-3Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd1-2Motherwell

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell 1528 · Dundee Utd 1448

	Motherwell	Draw	Dundee Utd
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motherwell (rating 1528 vs 1448).
H2H favours Motherwell: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell	Dundee Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:40 +3’	1.83	3.70	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell 4–1–1 Dundee Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	Dundee Utd
13/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
29/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	Dundee Utd
22/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Motherwell
14/12/24 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	4-3 HT 3-1	Dundee Utd
30/10/24 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	1-2 HT 1-1	Motherwell

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Dundee	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
3	St Mirren	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Motherwell	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Hearts	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
6	St Johnstone	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
7	Hibernian	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Aberdeen	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	Rangers	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Falkirk	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Dundee Utd	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
12	Kilmarnock	2	0	0	2	4	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell	Dundee Utd
Hearts	1-1 D	0-4 L
Rangers	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Motherwell (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motherwell

DLLWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
13/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
09/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
11/04	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
04/04	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
21/03	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Dundee Utd

LWWLLDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
09/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
31/07	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
12/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
09/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
02/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
26/04	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
11/04	Livingston Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-2	4	0	W
04/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-4	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motherwell win (50%). Probabilities: Motherwell 50%, draw 26%, Dundee Utd 24%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Motherwell 1.62 · Dundee Utd 1.05), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.