Prediction: Hearts vs St Mirren
Team pages: Hearts · St Mirren
- St Mirren1-0Hearts
- Hearts2-0St Mirren
- St Mirren2-2Hearts
- St Mirren1-1Hearts
- Hearts3-1St Mirren
- St Mirren1-1Hearts
| Hearts | Draw | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hearts (rating 1563 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Hearts: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hearts | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hearts 2–3–1 St Mirren
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/26 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hearts |
| 14/01/26 Scotland Premiership | Hearts | 2-0 HT 0-0 | St Mirren |
| 29/10/25 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Hearts |
| 16/08/25 Scotland League Cup | St Mirren | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hearts |
| 26/02/25 Scotland Premiership | Hearts | 3-1 HT 0-1 | St Mirren |
| 10/02/25 Scotland FA Cup | St Mirren | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hearts |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Hearts | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 8 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 9 | Dundee Utd | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hearts | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Falkirk | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| St Johnstone | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Dundee Utd | 4-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Aberdeen | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Celtic | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Motherwell | 1-1 D | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: St Mirren (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hearts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/09 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 14 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 13/05 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
St Mirren
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
3-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hearts vs St Mirren?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hearts win (66%). Probabilities: Hearts 66%, draw 20%, St Mirren 14%.
How many goals are expected in Hearts vs St Mirren?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Hearts 2.2 · St Mirren 0.92), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hearts vs St Mirren?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.