Football · Scotland Premiership · 28/10, 20:45
Prediction: St Mirren vs Hibernian
Team pages: St Mirren · Hibernian
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
St Mirren1.06
Hibernian1.49
1X2
St Mirren
Draw
Hibernian
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
St Mirren
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Hibernian
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Mirren
1–3–2
Hibernian
(6 last)
- Hibernian2-0St Mirren
- St Mirren0-3Hibernian
- Hibernian1-1St Mirren
- St Mirren2-2Hibernian
- St Mirren0-0Hibernian
- Hibernian1-2St Mirren
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Mirren 1425 · Hibernian 1460
| St Mirren | Draw | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Hibernian: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Mirren | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/0/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5 | 1.7 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Mirren 1–3–2 Hibernian
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 2-0 HT 1-0 | St Mirren |
| 08/11/25 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Hibernian |
| 31/08/25 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 1-1 HT 0-0 | St Mirren |
| 14/05/25 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Hibernian |
| 16/02/25 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hibernian |
| 09/11/24 Scotland Premiership | Hibernian | 1-2 HT 0-2 | St Mirren |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 24 |
| 2 | Rangers | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Hearts | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | St Johnstone | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 10 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Hearts | 0-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Dundee Utd | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Rangers | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Kilmarnock | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Motherwell | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| St Johnstone | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Falkirk | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Mirren
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
3-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
Hibernian
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/09 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 03/09 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Mirren vs Hibernian?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hibernian win (47%). Probabilities: St Mirren 26%, draw 27%, Hibernian 47%.
How many goals are expected in St Mirren vs Hibernian?
The model expects 2.55 goals (St Mirren 1.06 · Hibernian 1.49), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Hibernian?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.