Football · Scotland Premiership · 01/08, 16:00
Prediction: Falkirk vs St Mirren
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Falkirk1.73
St Mirren1.31
1X2
Falkirk
Draw
St Mirren
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Falkirk
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
St Mirren
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Falkirk
3–1–2
St Mirren
(6 last)
- Falkirk1-2St Mirren
- St Mirren0-2Falkirk
- Falkirk1-2St Mirren
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Falkirk 1496 · St Mirren 1566
| Falkirk | Draw | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Mirren (rating 1496 vs 1566).
- H2H favours Falkirk: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Falkirk | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.9 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Falkirk 3–1–2 St Mirren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Scotland Premiership | Falkirk | 1-2 HT 1-1 | St Mirren |
| 10/01/26 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Falkirk |
| 13/09/25 Scotland Premiership | Falkirk | 1-2 HT 0-0 | St Mirren |
| 28/04/18 Scotland Championship | Falkirk | 1-0 HT 0-0 | St Mirren |
| 17/04/18 Scotland Championship | St Mirren | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Falkirk |
| 21/10/17 Scotland Championship | Falkirk | 0-0 HT 0-0 | St Mirren |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hearts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Falkirk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Stranraer Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Alloa Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Genk Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Ayr Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup |
4-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | Airdrieonians UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
2-3 | 2-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
St Mirren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | East Kilbride Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 18/07 | Cove Rangers Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Dumbarton Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Arbroath UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Falkirk vs St Mirren?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Falkirk win (46%). Probabilities: Falkirk 46%, draw 25%, St Mirren 28%.
How many goals are expected in Falkirk vs St Mirren?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Falkirk 1.73 · St Mirren 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Falkirk vs St Mirren?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.