Football · Scotland Premiership · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Falkirk vs Dundee

Team pages: Falkirk · Dundee

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Falkirk1.46

Dundee1.13

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Falkirk Draw Dundee

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Falkirk 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLDWD

Dundee 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Falkirk 2–4 Dundee (6 last)

Falkirk1-0Dundee
Dundee1-0Falkirk
Falkirk2-1Dundee
Falkirk0-3Dundee
Dundee3-0Falkirk
Dundee3-1Falkirk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Falkirk 1476 · Dundee 1507

	Falkirk	Draw	Dundee
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dundee: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Falkirk	Dundee
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.60 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:31 +4’	2.10	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +614’	2.03	3.57	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Falkirk 2–0–4 Dundee

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Falkirk	1-0 HT 0-0	Dundee
27/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-0 HT 1-0	Falkirk
25/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Falkirk	2-1 HT 0-1	Dundee
08/12/22 Scotland League Challenge Cup	Falkirk	0-3 HT 0-2	Dundee
30/08/22 Scotland League Cup	Dundee	3-0 HT 0-0	Falkirk
26/01/16 Scotland FA Cup	Dundee	3-1 HT 1-1	Falkirk

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	7	6	0	1	14	4	18
2	Rangers	7	5	1	1	8	4	16
3	Hearts	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
4	Dundee	7	3	1	3	9	7	10
5	St Mirren	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
6	St Johnstone	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
7	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	7	8	8
8	Motherwell	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
9	Dundee Utd	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
10	Hibernian	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
11	Falkirk	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	6	15	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Falkirk	Dundee
St Johnstone	1-1 D	1-1 D
Hearts	2-1 W	1-2 L
Dundee Utd	1-1 D	2-0 W
Celtic	1-2 L	0-1 L
Motherwell	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hibernian	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Dundee (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Falkirk

LLLLDLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
15/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
05/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
29/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
01/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
16/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-3	2-5	7	3	L
13/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
09/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-3	6	1	L

Dundee

WLWLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
02/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
22/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
08/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-2	3-2	7	0	W
12/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-3	2	7	L
09/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Falkirk vs Dundee?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Falkirk win (44%). Probabilities: Falkirk 44%, draw 27%, Dundee 29%.

How many goals are expected in Falkirk vs Dundee?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Falkirk 1.46 · Dundee 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Falkirk vs Dundee?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.