Football · Scotland Premiership · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: St Mirren vs Dundee

Team pages: St Mirren · Dundee

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

St Mirren1.6

Dundee1.21

1X2

46% 26% 28%

St Mirren Draw Dundee

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

St Mirren 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLLLLL

Dundee 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDLWWD

Head-to-head

St Mirren 1–1–4 Dundee (6 last)

Dundee1-0St Mirren
St Mirren0-0Dundee
Dundee3-1St Mirren
St Mirren1-0Dundee
Dundee2-0St Mirren
St Mirren1-2Dundee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Mirren 1442 · Dundee 1532

	St Mirren	Draw	Dundee
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dundee (rating 1442 vs 1532).
H2H favours Dundee: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Mirren	Dundee
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.16 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +8’	2.00	3.70	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +135’	2.16	3.90	3.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St Mirren 1–1–4 Dundee

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-0 HT 1-0	St Mirren
31/01/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-0 HT 0-0	Dundee
29/11/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	3-1 HT 2-1	St Mirren
27/09/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	1-0 HT 1-0	Dundee
05/04/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	2-0 HT 1-0	St Mirren
29/12/24 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	1-2 HT 1-1	Dundee

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	8	7	0	1	16	4	21
2	Rangers	9	6	2	1	13	7	20
3	Hearts	8	5	1	2	19	8	16
4	Dundee	9	4	2	3	13	10	14
5	St Johnstone	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
7	Aberdeen	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
8	St Mirren	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
9	Falkirk	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
10	Motherwell	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	2	2	5	10	20	8
12	Hibernian	9	2	1	6	9	14	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Mirren	Dundee
Aberdeen	1-3 L	2-0 W
Hearts	0-5 L	1-2 L
Dundee Utd	0-3 L	2-0 W
Rangers	0-1 L	2-2 D
Celtic	1-2 L	0-1 L
Motherwell	3-3 D	2-1 W
St Johnstone	1-0 W	1-1 D
Falkirk	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dundee (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Mirren

DWWDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
10/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
19/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	4	4	L
09/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
02/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
08/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
01/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	2	D

Dundee

WLWWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
10/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	10	0	W
19/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
02/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
22/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
08/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-2	3-2	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Mirren vs Dundee?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Mirren win (46%). Probabilities: St Mirren 46%, draw 26%, Dundee 28%.

How many goals are expected in St Mirren vs Dundee?

The model expects 2.81 goals (St Mirren 1.6 · Dundee 1.21), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Dundee?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.