Football · Scotland Premiership · 28/10, 20:45

Prediction: St Johnstone vs Motherwell

Team pages: St Johnstone · Motherwell

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

St Johnstone1.46

Motherwell1.22

1X2

42% 28% 31%

St Johnstone Draw Motherwell

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

St Johnstone 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLDWDL

Motherwell 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

St Johnstone 2–1–3 Motherwell (6 last)

St Johnstone0-0Motherwell
Motherwell3-2St Johnstone
St Johnstone2-1Motherwell
St Johnstone1-0Motherwell
Motherwell2-1St Johnstone
St Johnstone1-2Motherwell

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Johnstone 1492 · Motherwell 1453

	St Johnstone	Draw	Motherwell
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Motherwell: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Johnstone	Motherwell
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.56 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.41
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +6’	2.20	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +21’	2.56	3.41	2.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Johnstone 2–1–3 Motherwell

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/25 Scotland League Cup	St Johnstone	0-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
26/04/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	3-2 HT 2-1	St Johnstone
25/01/25 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	2-1 HT 0-1	Motherwell
18/01/25 Scotland FA Cup	St Johnstone	1-0 HT 1-0	Motherwell
09/11/24 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-1 HT 2-0	St Johnstone
31/08/24 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	1-2 HT 0-1	Motherwell

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	9	8	0	1	23	5	24
2	Rangers	10	7	2	1	17	7	23
3	Hearts	9	5	1	3	20	15	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	4	3	3	14	14	15
5	Dundee	10	4	2	4	14	12	14
6	St Mirren	10	4	1	5	11	18	13
7	Falkirk	10	3	3	4	12	12	12
8	St Johnstone	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
9	Aberdeen	10	3	2	5	12	13	11
10	Motherwell	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	2	2	6	10	23	8
12	Hibernian	9	2	1	6	9	14	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Johnstone	Motherwell
Rangers	0-4 L	0-1 L
Dundee Utd	1-1 D	3-0 W
Aberdeen	1-0 W	0-4 L
Falkirk	1-1 D	0-0 D
Celtic	0-1 L	0-2 L
Hibernian	2-1 W	2-1 W
Dundee	1-1 D	1-2 L
St Mirren	0-1 L	3-3 D
Kilmarnock	4-3 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: St Johnstone (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Johnstone

WLLDWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
17/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
11/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
19/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
09/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-2	4	0	L
08/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
02/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-1	4-3	6	4	W

Motherwell

WWDDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
11/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	9	2	L
15/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
05/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
02/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Johnstone vs Motherwell?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Johnstone win (42%). Probabilities: St Johnstone 42%, draw 28%, Motherwell 31%.

How many goals are expected in St Johnstone vs Motherwell?

The model expects 2.68 goals (St Johnstone 1.46 · Motherwell 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in St Johnstone vs Motherwell?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.