Prediction: Arbroath vs Morton
- Morton1-2Arbroath
- Morton2-1Arbroath
- Arbroath1-1Morton
- Morton1-0Arbroath
- Arbroath1-1Morton
- Arbroath1-2Morton
| Arbroath | Draw | Morton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 30% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arbroath (rating 1478 vs 1399).
- H2H favours Morton: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arbroath | Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arbroath 1–2–3 Morton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 Scotland Championship | Morton | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Arbroath |
| 28/03/26 Scotland Championship | Morton | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Arbroath |
| 23/01/26 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Morton |
| 08/11/25 Scotland Championship | Morton | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Arbroath |
| 20/09/25 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Morton |
| 20/04/24 Scotland Championship | Arbroath | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Morton |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Partick | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Livingston | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Ayr | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 11 |
| 8 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arbroath | Morton |
|---|---|---|
| Partick | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Queen's Park | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Stenhousemuir | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Raith | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Dunfermline | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Livingston | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Inverness CT | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Ayr | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Arbroath (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arbroath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 25/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Morton Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 01/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
Morton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/09 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arbroath vs Morton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arbroath win (53%). Probabilities: Arbroath 53%, draw 28%, Morton 19%.
How many goals are expected in Arbroath vs Morton?
The model expects 2.12 goals (Arbroath 1.4 · Morton 0.72), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Arbroath vs Morton?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.