Football · Scotland Championship · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Ayr vs Dunfermline
Team pages: Ayr · Dunfermline
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Ayr1.02
Dunfermline1.26
1X2
Ayr
Draw
Dunfermline
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Ayr
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Dunfermline
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ayr
3–1–2
Dunfermline
(6 last)
- Dunfermline1-1Ayr
- Ayr0-3Dunfermline
- Dunfermline2-3Ayr
- Ayr0-1Dunfermline
- Dunfermline0-1Ayr
- Ayr3-0Dunfermline
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ayr 1461 · Dunfermline 1511
| Ayr | Draw | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunfermline (rating 1461 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Ayr: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ayr | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 2.7 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayr 3–1–2 Dunfermline
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ayr |
| 07/04/26 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Dunfermline |
| 20/12/25 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 2-3 HT 0-3 | Ayr |
| 31/10/25 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Dunfermline |
| 23/09/25 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Ayr |
| 29/03/25 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Dunfermline |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Partick | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Livingston | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Ayr | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 11 |
| 8 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ayr | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Queen's Park | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Inverness CT | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Morton | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Raith | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Arbroath | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| St Johnstone | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ayr
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 25/09 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 18/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Morton Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
Dunfermline
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Morton Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 01/05 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ayr vs Dunfermline?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Dunfermline win (41%). Probabilities: Ayr 29%, draw 29%, Dunfermline 41%.
How many goals are expected in Ayr vs Dunfermline?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Ayr 1.02 · Dunfermline 1.26), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ayr vs Dunfermline?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.