Football · Scotland Championship · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Dunfermline vs Livingston
Team pages: Dunfermline · Livingston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Dunfermline1.12
Livingston1.26
1X2
Dunfermline
Draw
Livingston
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Dunfermline
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Livingston
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dunfermline
2–1–3
Livingston
(6 last)
- Livingston2-0Dunfermline
- Dunfermline1-0Livingston
- Livingston0-0Dunfermline
- Dunfermline0-2Livingston
- Dunfermline3-0Livingston
- Livingston2-0Dunfermline
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dunfermline 1513 · Livingston 1477
| Dunfermline | Draw | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Livingston: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dunfermline | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.3 | 3.1 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunfermline 2–1–3 Livingston
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 Scotland Championship | Livingston | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dunfermline |
| 02/04/25 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Livingston |
| 15/02/25 Scotland Championship | Livingston | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dunfermline |
| 05/02/25 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Dunfermline | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Livingston |
| 29/10/24 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Livingston |
| 03/08/24 Scotland Championship | Livingston | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Dunfermline |
Standings · Scotland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Partick | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Livingston | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 5 | Inverness CT | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Ayr | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dunfermline | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Ayr | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Morton | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Queen's Park | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Arbroath | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Raith | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Inverness CT | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dunfermline
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | Morton Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Livingston Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 01/05 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Livingston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Partick Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 25/09 | Raith Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Inverness CT Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | Morton Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dunfermline vs Livingston?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Livingston win (39%). Probabilities: Dunfermline 33%, draw 28%, Livingston 39%.
How many goals are expected in Dunfermline vs Livingston?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Dunfermline 1.12 · Livingston 1.26), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dunfermline vs Livingston?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.