Football · Scotland Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Queen's Park vs Dunfermline

Team pages: Queen's Park · Dunfermline

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Queen's Park0.65

Dunfermline1.43

1X2

17% 27% 56%

Queen's Park Draw Dunfermline

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Queen's Park 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLLWL

Dunfermline 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDLWDWWDD

Head-to-head

Queen's Park 0–2–4 Dunfermline (6 last)

Dunfermline2-0Queen's Park
Queen's Park0-2Dunfermline
Dunfermline1-0Queen's Park
Queen's Park1-1Dunfermline
Dunfermline0-0Queen's Park
Queen's Park0-1Dunfermline

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queen's Park 1412 · Dunfermline 1487

	Queen's Park	Draw	Dunfermline
Our model	16%	29%	55%
Market	18%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunfermline (rating 1412 vs 1487).
H2H favours Dunfermline: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queen's Park	Dunfermline
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	0.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.60

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +22’	5.00	3.60	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queen's Park 0–2–4 Dunfermline

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Scotland Championship	Dunfermline	2-0 HT 2-0	Queen's Park
25/04/26 Scotland Championship	Queen's Park	0-2 HT 0-1	Dunfermline
28/02/26 Scotland Championship	Dunfermline	1-0 HT 1-0	Queen's Park
13/12/25 Scotland Championship	Queen's Park	1-1 HT 1-0	Dunfermline
04/10/25 Scotland Championship	Dunfermline	0-0 HT 0-0	Queen's Park
12/04/25 Scotland Championship	Queen's Park	0-1 HT 0-0	Dunfermline

Standings · Scotland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stenhousemuir	10	7	2	1	13	5	23
2	Raith	11	6	3	2	16	7	21
3	Partick	10	6	3	1	11	3	21
4	Inverness CT	11	4	4	3	14	11	16
5	Livingston	11	4	2	5	14	11	14
6	Dunfermline	9	3	5	1	7	5	14
7	Ayr	11	3	3	5	10	12	12
8	Arbroath	11	3	2	6	7	17	11
9	Morton	11	2	1	8	9	18	7
10	Queen's Park	11	2	1	8	6	18	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queen's Park	Dunfermline
Morton	0-2 L	1-0 W
Inverness CT	2-1 W	0-0 D
Raith	0-2 L	1-0 W
Arbroath	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ayr	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dunfermline (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queen's Park

LLDWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Morton Scotland Championship	0-2	0-2	3	7	L
13/10	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
10/10	Raith Scotland Championship	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
25/09	Arbroath Scotland Championship	0-2	1-2	9	4	L
18/09	Ayr Scotland Championship	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-2	0-2	9	6	L
05/09	Morton Scotland Championship	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	Partick Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/08	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/08	Raith Scotland Championship	0-1	1-2	4	3	L

Dunfermline

DDDLWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
10/10	Ayr Scotland Championship	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
19/09	Morton Scotland Championship	0-0	1-0	9	1	W
12/09	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	2-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	Arbroath Scotland Championship	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
28/08	Raith Scotland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/08	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
08/08	Ayr Scotland Championship	1-1	1-1	12	1	D
01/08	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
01/05	Arbroath Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queen's Park vs Dunfermline?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dunfermline win (56%). Probabilities: Queen's Park 17%, draw 27%, Dunfermline 56%.

How many goals are expected in Queen's Park vs Dunfermline?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Queen's Park 0.65 · Dunfermline 1.43), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Queen's Park vs Dunfermline?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.