Football · Scotland Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Partick vs Stenhousemuir

Team pages: Partick · Stenhousemuir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Partick1.49

Stenhousemuir0.49

1X2

63% 25% 13%

Partick Draw Stenhousemuir

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

1-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Partick 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Stenhousemuir 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Partick 4–1–1 Stenhousemuir (6 last)

Stenhousemuir1-0Partick
Partick2-2Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir1-2Partick
Stenhousemuir1-2Partick
Stenhousemuir1-4Partick
Stenhousemuir0-2Partick

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Partick 1572 · Stenhousemuir 1549

	Partick	Draw	Stenhousemuir
Our model	61%	28%	11%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Partick: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Partick	Stenhousemuir
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7.9	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +7’	1.40	4.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Partick 4–1–1 Stenhousemuir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/26 Scotland Championship	Stenhousemuir	1-0 HT 0-0	Partick
21/07/26 Scotland League Cup	Partick	2-2 HT 1-2	Stenhousemuir
09/07/22 Scotland League Cup	Stenhousemuir	1-2 HT 0-0	Partick
17/07/21 Scotland League Cup	Stenhousemuir	1-2 HT 1-0	Partick
16/11/19 Scotland League Challenge Cup	Stenhousemuir	1-4 HT 0-1	Partick
14/07/18 Scotland League Cup	Stenhousemuir	0-2 HT 0-2	Partick

Standings · Scotland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stenhousemuir	10	7	2	1	13	5	23
2	Raith	11	6	3	2	16	7	21
3	Partick	10	6	3	1	11	3	21
4	Inverness CT	11	4	4	3	14	11	16
5	Livingston	11	4	2	5	14	11	14
6	Dunfermline	9	3	5	1	7	5	14
7	Ayr	11	3	3	5	10	12	12
8	Arbroath	11	3	2	6	7	17	11
9	Morton	11	2	1	8	9	18	7
10	Queen's Park	11	2	1	8	6	18	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Partick	Stenhousemuir
Ayr	1-0 W	1-0 W
Livingston	2-1 W	1-0 W
Arbroath	3-0 W	1-0 W
Raith	0-0 D	1-1 D
Queen's Park	0-0 D	2-0 W
Inverness CT	1-1 D	0-2 L
Morton	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Partick

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Ayr Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
10/10	Livingston Scotland Championship	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
03/10	Arbroath Scotland Championship	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
19/09	Raith Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
15/09	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
05/09	Ayr Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	19	3	D
21/08	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
07/08	Livingston Scotland Championship	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
01/08	Morton Scotland Championship	0-0	1-0	1	5	W

Stenhousemuir

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Raith Scotland Championship	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
10/10	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
25/09	Ayr Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
19/09	Arbroath Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Partick Scotland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/09	Livingston Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
29/08	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	1-0	3-1	9	5	W
22/08	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
08/08	Morton Scotland Championship	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
01/08	Raith Scotland Championship	1-1	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Partick vs Stenhousemuir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Partick win (63%). Probabilities: Partick 63%, draw 25%, Stenhousemuir 13%.

How many goals are expected in Partick vs Stenhousemuir?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Partick 1.49 · Stenhousemuir 0.49), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Partick vs Stenhousemuir?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.