Football · Scotland Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Morton vs Stenhousemuir

Team pages: Morton · Stenhousemuir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Morton1.18

Stenhousemuir1.21

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Morton Draw Stenhousemuir

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Morton 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Stenhousemuir 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Morton 4–2 Stenhousemuir (6 last)

Stenhousemuir2-0Morton
Stenhousemuir4-0Morton
Morton3-0Stenhousemuir
Morton2-0Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir0-3Morton
Morton3-2Stenhousemuir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Morton 1456 · Stenhousemuir 1495

	Morton	Draw	Stenhousemuir
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Morton: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Morton	Stenhousemuir
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.67
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.44 ★
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +4’	2.55	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:24 +64’	2.67	3.44	2.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Morton 4–0–2 Stenhousemuir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Scotland Championship	Stenhousemuir	2-0 HT 0-0	Morton
17/01/26 Scotland FA Cup	Stenhousemuir	4-0 HT 2-0	Morton
15/07/25 Scotland League Cup	Morton	3-0 HT 3-0	Stenhousemuir
21/07/18 Scotland League Cup	Morton	2-0 HT 2-0	Stenhousemuir
01/07/17 UK Friendlies	Stenhousemuir	0-3 HT 0-1	Morton
11/04/15 Scotland League One	Morton	3-2 HT 0-1	Stenhousemuir

Standings · Scotland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Partick	13	7	4	2	17	7	25
2	Raith	13	7	3	3	20	9	24
3	Dunfermline	13	6	6	1	15	7	24
4	Stenhousemuir	13	7	2	4	13	12	23
5	Livingston	13	6	2	5	18	11	20
6	Inverness CT	13	5	4	4	17	16	19
7	Ayr	12	4	3	5	13	14	15
8	Arbroath	13	3	2	8	7	22	11
9	Morton	12	3	1	8	12	20	10
10	Queen's Park	13	2	1	10	8	22	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Morton	Stenhousemuir
Partick	3-2 W	0-3 L
Arbroath	2-1 W	1-0 W
Raith	1-2 L	1-1 D
Inverness CT	0-2 L	0-2 L
Dunfermline	0-1 L	0-1 L
Livingston	1-4 L	0-3 L
Ayr	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Stenhousemuir (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Morton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Partick Scotland Championship	1-2	3-2	4	5	W
17/10	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	2-0	2-0	5	7	W
10/10	Arbroath Scotland Championship	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
03/10	Raith Scotland Championship	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
25/09	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
19/09	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
11/09	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-2	1-4	7	2	L
05/09	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Ayr Scotland Championship	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
22/08	Arbroath Scotland Championship	0-1	1-2	1	3	L

Stenhousemuir

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
27/10	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
24/10	Partick Scotland Championship	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
17/10	Raith Scotland Championship	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
10/10	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
25/09	Ayr Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
19/09	Arbroath Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Partick Scotland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/09	Livingston Scotland Championship	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
29/08	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	1-0	3-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Morton vs Stenhousemuir?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stenhousemuir win (36%). Probabilities: Morton 35%, draw 29%, Stenhousemuir 36%.

How many goals are expected in Morton vs Stenhousemuir?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Morton 1.18 · Stenhousemuir 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Morton vs Stenhousemuir?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.